340
FXUS63 KJKL 270759
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
359 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES, MILD DAYS, AND CHILLY NIGHTS
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
- FOG IS LIKELY NEAR THE AREA'S MAIN STEM RIVERS AND LAKES LATE
EACH NIGHT.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS THE CALENDAR CHANGES TO NOVEMBER THIS
WEEKEND, SO INTERESTS WITH OUTDOOR HALLOWEEN PLANS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO CONTINUE MONITORING FOR FORECAST UPDATES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2026
OUR "BROKEN RECORD" WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS STUCK ON THE SAME
LINE EACH DAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TENTACLES OF FOG BEGINNING
TO SNAKE THEIR WAY THROUGH THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS UNDER A FEW
PASSING HIGH CIRRUS. MEANWHILE, THERMOMETERS RANGE FROM THE UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S IN THE COOLEST HOLLOWS TO THE LOWER/MID 50S ON
THERMAL BELT RIDGES. THESE QUIESCENT CONDITIONS ARE COURTESY OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. TO OUR
NORTH, THERE IS A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM CAPE
COD TO A WEAK LOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN IOWA. ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH
AROUND 1035 MB IS IN PLACE FURTHER NORTH OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO.
TRANSLATING TO THE UPPER LEVELS, 500 HPA RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE
GULF OF AMERICA NORTHWARD TO OVER THE GREAT LAKES, WHILE A MEAN
TROUGH IS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. TWO SHORTWAVES ARE
EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THAT TROUGHING: THE FIRST IS OVER THE
DAKOTAS WHILE THE SECOND IS OVER KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA.
MOISTURE STREAMING OUT AHEAD OF THOSE SHORTWAVES WILL BE THE
ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IN OUR OTHERWISE LONG-DURATION STRETCH
OF CLEAR SKIES, RESULTING IN PERIODS OF MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUD COVER OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE AND ITS
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO PULL THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BACK TO THE NORTH, KEEPING EASTERN KENTUCKY SOLIDLY IN
THE WARM SECTOR. AS A RESULT, LOOK FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE NIGHTTIME VALLEY FOG
COVERAGE MAY BE SLIGHTLY LESS DUE TO LESS EFFICIENT RADIATIVE
COOLING. IT WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S DURING THE DAY, WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S TO MID 50S TONIGHT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
AT THE ONSET OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY, AN ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST, WHILE BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING DOMINATES THE WESTERN
CONUS. ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY, 500 MB HEIGHTS NEAR 585 DAM SIT
WITHIN THE 90TH TO 95TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE, HIGHLIGHTING THE
UNSEASONABLE NATURE OF THIS PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE, LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. A PASSING WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN MID-AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS ON WEDNESDAY,
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY AS THE WAVE EXITS. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S. WITH CALM WINDS, DRY
AIR, AND CLEAR SKIES, STRONG NOCTURNAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
SUPPORT PRONOUNCED RIDGE-VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLITS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SHELTERED VALLEYS SHOULD DIP INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 40S, WHILE
THERMAL BELT RIDGES HOLD IN THE UPPER 40S, NEAR 50F. SOME PATCHY
RIVER VALLEY FOG SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BROADENS AND EXPANDS
NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, ALLOWING DEEP-LAYER SUBSIDENCE TO
PEAK AND MAINTAINING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS,
STRENGTHENING TO AROUND 1024 MB BY FRIDAY MORNING. DAYTIME WARMING
UNDER AMPLE SUNSHINE SHOULD PUSH AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO
MID-70S EACH DAY - ROUGHLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE LATE-OCTOBER
NORMALS.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS INTO MORE
PROGRESSIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE, STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE HOLDS ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH SUNDAY, KEEPING THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT STALLED WELL TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST. THIS KEEPS EASTERN KENTUCKY FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR,
WHERE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PUMP UNSEASONABLE MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO THE
90TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE FROM NOVEMBER 1ST ONWARD, PEAKING
AROUND 1.2 TO 1.3 INCHES ON SUNDAY.
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT INTERACTING WITH
THIS RICH MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO RAIN CHANCES STARTING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES PEAKING ON SUNDAY AROUND 60%.
THE FRONT FINALLY EDGES CLOSER HEADING INTO MONDAY BEFORE PETERING
OUT, ALLOWING POPS TO TAPER DOWN TO AROUND 20% BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGHS WILL HOLD IN THE LOW-TO-MID 70S SATURDAY, THEN TRIM BACK A BIT
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY UNDER WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2026
THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS CROSSING THE AREA, BUT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VALLEY FOG
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ALONG THE RIVERS, LARGEST CREEKS, AND
LAKES, AND LEAD TO MVFR TO IFR REDUCTIONS THROUGH ~13-14Z, IF NOT
LOCALLY LOWER REDUCTIONS AROUND 12Z. THIS FOG COULD DRIFT INTO
AND IMPACT A COUPLE OF THE TAF SITES, WITH RECENT GUIDANCE
SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT ON KSME BEING IMPACTED WITH REDUCTIONS NEAR
12Z. BASED ON THIS AND PERSISTENCE, OPTED TO INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP
THERE WITH MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SHOULD RETURN AREAWIDE BY ~13-14Z
AS THE VALLEY FOG LIFTS AND DISSIPATES.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...GEERTSON/CMC/JP
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