858
FXUS63 KJKL 271932
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
332 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER WITH MILD AFTERNOONS AND CHILLY NIGHTS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
- A POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WILL RETURN BY SUNDAY AND LAST INTO THE NEW
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2026
SURFACE RIDGING IS PRESENT OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND ADJACENT PIEDMONT PLATEAU AS OF LATE AFTERNOON,
PROVIDING US WITH A CONTINUED DRY AIR MASS. ALOFT, RIDGING WAS
ALSO PRESENT OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE SURFACE RIDGING WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, BUT THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL
FLATTEN AS A COUPLE OF WAVES RIPPLE THROUGH THE FLOW ON ITS
NORTHWEST SIDE. THE FIRST WAVE PASSING THROUGH TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BRING A BAND OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS
THE JKL FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THIS NORMALLY
WOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT VALLEYS FROM COOLING MORE
EFFECTIVELY THAN SURROUNDING TERRAIN, BUT IT MAY SLIGHTLY INHIBIT
FOG DEVELOPMENT IN VALLEYS, AND IT'S BEEN RESTRAINED A BIT IN THE
FORECAST. THE CLOUDS WILL DEPART ON WEDNESDAY, AND THE RETURN OF
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE PREVALENT FOG WE'VE BEEN SEEING IN THE
LARGER, DEEPER VALLEYS ON MOST RECENT NIGHTS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 547 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2026
(AN UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.)
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD OPENS WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH A LOW-AMPLITUDE
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS - BROAD 500 HPA RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS WITH UPSTREAM TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THE
SURFACE, ~1030 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO THE WESTERN GULF COAST. TO OUR NORTHWEST,
LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO NEBRASKA AND THEN NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TO ANOTHER WEAK LOW NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND.
THE TROUGH WILL BE AMPLIFYING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD, WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY CORRESPONDING, ALBEIT
WEAK, HEIGHT RISES OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS INTO FRIDAY.
THIS BEING THE CASE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC SHEARS
APART, WITH THE WESTWARD PORTION CRESTING OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY NIGHT. RIDGE-VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLITS
ARE LIKELY TO SHARPEN FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS WITH
THE LOSS OF CLOUD COVER ALLOWING FOR MORE EFFICIENT RADIATIVE
COOLING. THIS SHOULD ALSO FAVOR DECENT NOCTURNAL FOG FORMATION IN
THE PRONE VALLEYS, MAINLY NEAR LAKES, RIVERS, AND LARGER CREEKS.
A NORTHERN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH THEN RIDES OVER THE RIDGE ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD TOWARD
THE OHIO RIVER, STALLING OVER OR JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA DUE TO A
LOSS OF UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT. WITH THIS SETUP, THE NEXT NOTABLE
WEATHER MAKER (UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER TROPICAL
SYSTEM VANCE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC) WILL RISE NORTHWARD ACROSS
MEXICO AND ATTEMPT TO RIDE THROUGH AND QUASH THE LINGERING RIDGE.
THIS ROBUST DISTURBANCE WILL SEND PWATS SURGING HIGHER TO BETWEEN
1.2 AND 1.3 INCHES BY SUNDAY, EXCEEDING THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF
LREF CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE COMBINATION OF UPPER-
LEVEL ENERGY AND GULF MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD AND INTERACTING
WITH THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR OUR FIRST
RAINFALL IN ABOUT 2 WEEKS ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. PRESENT
MODEL TIMING FAVORS THIS DISTURBANCE'S ASSOCIATED RAINFALL
DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THAT BEING SAID, THE FORECAST
STILL BEARS WATCHING ON HALLOWEEN EVENING, AS A SLIGHTLY FASTER
ARRIVAL COULD MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A COMPLETELY DRY AND
MILD EVENING VERSUS AN INCREASINGLY DAMP ONE.
IN SENSIBLE TERMS, LOOK FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO RETURN WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE THICKENING CLOUDS
RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES
ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, PEAKING ON SUNDAY (AROUND
60 PERCENT POP) BEFORE DIMINISHING, AT LEAST TEMPORARILY, FOR
MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY, THEN COOL SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THICKER
CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE COOLEST ON THE FIRST COUPLE OF NIGHTS, RANGING IN THE 40S TO
NEAR 50F, BUT THEN MODERATING INTO THE 50S OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED AT TAF ISSUANCE AND WILL LAST INTO THE
NIGHT AREA WIDE. VALLEY FOG (WITH A POTENTIAL FOR IFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS) IS EXPECTED IN SOME LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY, BUT A CEILING OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION AT THAT TIME WILL PROBABLY KEEP THE FOG MORE LIMITED THAN
ON OTHER RECENT NIGHTS. TAF SITES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE AFFECTED
BY THE FOG. ONCE FOG DISSIPATES ON WEDNESDAY MORNING, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AREA WIDE AGAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...HAL
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