401
FXUS62 KKEY 230329
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1029 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK KEEPING BREEZES LIGHT TO
GENTLE WITH NIL RAIN CHANCES.
-A BROAD CONTINENTAL HIGH WILL ADVANCE INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN MODERATELY STRENGTHENING
BREEZES AND SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES EARLY TO MID WEEK.
-THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE NEXT
WEEK AT THE EARLIEST. CONSEQUENTLY TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
BROADLY NEAR NORMAL WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2025
THE NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS
THIS EVENING. GOES EAST TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) PRODUCTS
SHOWS ESTIMATED PWAT VALUES HOVERING BETWEEN 0.75" AND 0.95"
THROUGHOUT THE KEYS. KBYX RADAR IS NOT DETECTING ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND GOES EAST NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SHOWS MOSTLY LOW
LEVEL CUMULUS CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND DEW POINTS ARE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING IS ALSO ONGOING
WITH THE BIG PINE KEY RAWS DROPPING DOWN TO 69 DEGREES A LITTLE
BEFORE 8 PM. ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GULF WITH
THIS RIDGE STRETCHING EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.
THIS IS PROMOTING NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES NEAR 5 KNOTS NORTH OF
THE CHAIN AND NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT
SURROUNDING MARINE PLATFORMS SOUTH OF THE CHAIN.
SHORT TERM FORECAST
THE 00Z EVENING SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE ONCE
AGAIN THIS EVENING. THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER PRESENT AROUND 850 MB
LAST EVENING HAS DRIED OUT MORE TONIGHT. ONCE AGAIN THOUGH, THIS
LAYER IS MOST LIKELY DEEPER OVER THE STRAITS WHERE A SOME CUMULUS
REMAIN. THE PWAT VALUE MEASURED WAS 0.96" WHICH IS BELOW THE 25TH
PERCENTILE BUT ABOVE THE 10TH PERCENTILE FOR THE DATE. ALSO, THE
WIND PROFILE IN THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET AGL IS UNIDIRECTIONAL
OUT OF THE EAST BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SINCE WE HAVE DRY AIR IN
PLACE, NO TRIGGER NEARBY, AND NO INSTABILITY, EXPECT A QUIET NIGHT
TO CONTINUE WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR A SHOWER, IF ANY, REMAINING
OVER THE STRAITS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2025
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. FROM SYNOPSIS, LIGHT, PREDOMINANTLY
NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. A NEW CONTINENTAL HIGH WILL PUSH IN TO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN FRESHENING NORTHEAST TO
EASTERLY BREEZES. THIS HIGH WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC, AND AFTER MID WEEK, BREEZES SHOULD COLLAPSE AS THE
PRESSURE FIELD BECOMES NEBULOUS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
NEAR SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN NORTH TO NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
WITH SPEEDS REMAINING BETWEEN 2 TO 9 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 82 71 80 71 / 0 0 0 0
MARATHON 82 71 79 71 / 0 0 0 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MJV
DATA ACQUISITION.....DR
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