427
FXUS62 KKEY 230933
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
433 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL RIDE EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST IN THE
SHORT TERM.
-A BROAD CONTINENTAL HIGH WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN MODERATELY
STRENGTHENING BREEZES AND SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES EARLY TO MID WEEK.
-PROBABILITY IS INCREASING THAT A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
KEYS REGION EARLY FRIDAY. A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN MEANS ONLY A
MODEST AMOUNT OF COOLING IS EXPECTED FROM THE CURRENT NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2025
BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS SWINGING INTO THE ATLANTIC
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, LINGERING WARM AND DRY LAYERS PERSIST
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS KEEPING THE ENVIRONMENT STABLE. A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE IS STRUNG ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, RESULTING IN
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES. THE SURFACE AIRMASS HAS
BEEN FAIRLY STAGNANT WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL AND DEW POINTS WELL UP IN THE UPPER 70S.
THE SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH WILL WEAKEN A BIT FURTHER TODAY.
THIS COMPOUNDED BY DAY TIME HEATING SHOULD HELP TO BACK LIGHT
BREEZES MORE NORTHERLY ALLOWING DEW POINTS TO SLIP A DEGREE OR TWO
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. STABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NIL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
A MODEST MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RIDE EASTWARD INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL HELP TO REINFORCE THE WARM AND DRY MID LEVELS. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST
AS AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH ALSO MIGRATES INTO THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO MOISTENS AND
DEEPEN WITH BOUTS OF LOW LEVEL VEERING MAKING AN APPEARANCE. AS A
RESULT, WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING TUESDAY. THIS
IS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE. NO SIGNIFICANT TREND IN
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO NEARLY COLLAPSE AROUND MID WEEK AS THE DEEP
LAYERED RIDGING GETS KICKED OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC BY BROAD
TROUGHING SWINGING EASTWARD ACROSS THE UNITED STATES. THIS LULL
IS EXPECTED TO LAST A DAY AS GUIDANCE IS BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT
WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE THANKSGIVING NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.
ASSOCIATED FRESHENING BREEZES WILL BE DRIVEN BY A ROBUST SURFACE
HIGH BUILDING IN BEHIND A LIFTING OUT PREFRONTAL TROUGH THAT
NEVER REACHES THE KEYS. THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STUCK IN
PROGRESSIVE MODE. AS A RESULT, NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY POST COLD
FRONT BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO VEER QUICKLY NORTHEAST TO EAST BY
THIS WEEKEND. ANY COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED TO BE ONLY A COUPLE TO FEW
DEGREES WITH DEW POINTS VISITING THE MID 60S BRIEFLY IN WAKE OF
THE FRONT. WHILE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE CURRENTLY ADVERTISED FOR
THE LONG RANGE FORECAST, THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT THIS IS ON
THE LOW SIDE. THIS IS DUE TO THE FAST VEERED FLOW AND COPIOUS
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE SLUNG IN BY THE STALLING FRONT, AND VERY
DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2025
WEAK RIDGING ACROSS FLORIDA WILL RESULT IN LIGHT MOSTLY
NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES TODAY INTO TOMORROW. THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK A ROBUST SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES, RESULTING IN FRESHENING EASTERLY BREEZES,
LIKELY PEAKING MONDAY NIGHT. BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO TREND SHARPLY
DOWNWARDS ON WEDNESDAY AS THIS HIGH MOVES OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC.
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL AND MULTI-DAY STRETCH OF FRESH BREEZES ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BEGINNING AROUND EARLY FRIDAY AS A STRONGER
HIGH LUMBERS THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS WITH NORTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
ONLY FEW CLOUDS NEAR FL030, AND CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE NEAR ZERO
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OF NOTE
ON THIS DAY IN 1905, LOCAL STANDARD TIME WAS CHANGED TO THE
SEVENTY-FIFTH MERIDIAN TIME, MADE BY OMITTING THE HOUR BETWEEN 11
A.M. AND NOON, ON THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 23, 1905. THIS ACTION WAS
TAKEN "IN ORDER THAT THE TIME ON THE CITY CLOCKS MIGHT BE THE SAME
AS THAT OF THE NAVAL STATION, THE TELEGRAPH OFFICE, AND THE SHIPS
CALLING THERE."
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DP
DATA ACQUISITION.....DP
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