668
FXUS62 KKEY 231533
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1033 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL RIDE EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, KEEPING RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST IN
THE SHORT TERM.
-A BROAD CONTINENTAL HIGH WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN MODERATELY
STRENGTHENING BREEZES AND SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES EARLY TO MID WEEK.
-PROBABILITY IS INCREASING THAT A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
KEYS REGION EARLY FRIDAY. ONLY A MODEST AMOUNT OF COOLING IS
EXPECTED FROM THE CURRENT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1022 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2025
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM
THE GULF COAST NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC. CLOSER
TO HOME, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE BAHAMAS
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS.
THE 12Z MORNING SOUNDING AT KEY CONTINUED TO SAMPLE A VERY DRY AND
STABLE TROPOSPHERIC PROFILE, WITH DISMAL LAPSE RATES AND
TREMENDOUS DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGING ABOVE THE 850 MB
ISOBARIC SURFACE. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE KEYS, WITH
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AT THIS LATE
MORNING HOUR. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR BOUNTIFUL SUNSHINE, NIL RAIN
CHANCES, AND HIGHS AT OR JUST ABOVE 80F. NO CHANGES PROPOSED TO
WHAT HAS BEEN AN EXTENDED PERSISTENCE FORECAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1022 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2025
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, LIGHT,
PREDOMINANTLY NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL LINGER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TOMORROW DUE TO WEAK RIDGING ACROSS FLORIDA. A CONTINENTAL
HIGH WILL PUSH IN TO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EARLY THIS WEEK,
RESULTING IN FRESHENING NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY BREEZES. THIS HIGH
WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC, AND AFTER MID WEEK,
BREEZES SHOULD COLLAPSE AS THE PRESSURE FIELD BECOMES NEBULOUS.
PROBABILITY IS INCREASING THAT A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD
THROUGH KEYS COASTAL WATERS VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST, RESULTING
IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE START OF A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FRESH
NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY BREEZES.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1022 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z
MONDAY MORNING, WITH NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH ONLY FEW CLOUDS NEAR FL030, WITH
NIL RAIN CHANCES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 81 71 82 73 / 0 0 0 0
MARATHON 80 72 81 74 / 0 0 0 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....BT
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT
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