380
FXUS62 KKEY 231714
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1214 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
-DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL RIDE EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, KEEPING RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST IN
THE SHORT TERM.
-A BROAD CONTINENTAL HIGH WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN MODERATELY
STRENGTHENING BREEZES AND SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES EARLY TO MID WEEK.
-PROBABILITY IS INCREASING THAT A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
KEYS REGION EARLY FRIDAY. ONLY A MODEST AMOUNT OF COOLING IS
EXPECTED FROM THE CURRENT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z
MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH ONLY FEW CLOUDS NEAR FL030, ALONG WITH
NIL RAIN CHANCES.
FORECAST
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2025
A MODEST MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RIDE EASTWARD INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL HELP TO REINFORCE THE WARM AND DRY MID LEVELS. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST
AS AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH ALSO MIGRATES INTO THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO MOISTENS AND
DEEPEN WITH BOUTS OF LOW LEVEL VEERING MAKING AN APPEARANCE. AS A
RESULT, WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING TUESDAY. THIS
IS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE. NO SIGNIFICANT TREND IN
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO NEARLY COLLAPSE AROUND MID WEEK AS THE DEEP
LAYERED RIDGING GETS KICKED OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC BY BROAD
TROUGHING SWINGING EASTWARD ACROSS THE UNITED STATES. THIS LULL
IS EXPECTED TO LAST A DAY AS GUIDANCE IS BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT
WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE THANKSGIVING NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.
ASSOCIATED FRESHENING BREEZES WILL BE DRIVEN BY A ROBUST SURFACE
HIGH BUILDING IN BEHIND A LIFTING OUT PREFRONTAL TROUGH THAT
NEVER REACHES THE KEYS. THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STUCK IN
PROGRESSIVE MODE. AS A RESULT, NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY POST COLD
FRONT BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO VEER QUICKLY NORTHEAST TO EAST BY
THIS WEEKEND. ANY COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED TO BE ONLY A COUPLE TO FEW
DEGREES WITH DEW POINTS VISITING THE MID 60S BRIEFLY IN WAKE OF
THE FRONT. WHILE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE CURRENTLY ADVERTISED FOR
THE LONG RANGE FORECAST, THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT THIS IS ON
THE LOW SIDE. THIS IS DUE TO THE FAST VEERED FLOW AND COPIOUS
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE SLUNG IN BY THE STALLING FRONT, AND VERY
DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1033 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2025
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, LIGHT,
PREDOMINANTLY NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL LINGER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TOMORROW DUE TO WEAK RIDGING ACROSS FLORIDA. A CONTINENTAL
HIGH WILL PUSH IN TO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EARLY THIS WEEK,
RESULTING IN FRESHENING NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY BREEZES. THIS HIGH
WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC, AND AFTER MID WEEK,
BREEZES SHOULD COLLAPSE AS THE PRESSURE FIELD BECOMES NEBULOUS.
PROBABILITY IS INCREASING THAT A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD
THROUGH KEYS COASTAL WATERS VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST, RESULTING
IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE START OF A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FRESH
NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY BREEZES.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....BT
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT
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