449
FXUS62 KKEY 240327
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1027 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL RIDE EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, KEEPING RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST IN
THE SHORT TERM.
-A BROAD CONTINENTAL HIGH WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN MODERATELY
STRENGTHENING BREEZES AND SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES EARLY TO MID WEEK.
-PROBABILITY IS INCREASING THAT A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
KEYS REGION EARLY FRIDAY. ONLY A MODEST AMOUNT OF COOLING IS
EXPECTED FROM THE CURRENT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1012 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2025
DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS WEEKEND. THE
KKEY EVENING SOUNDING SAMPLED AN ENVIRONMENT WITH A PWAT VALUE
JUST ABOVE THE 10TH PERCENTILE. GOES EAST SATELLITE SCANS SHOW A
NEAR COMPLETE ABSENCE OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE KEYS CWA. KBYX
RADAR RETURNS HIGHLIGHT A DECENT AMOUNT OF REFLECTIVITY OFF OF
WEST FLORIDA, BUT A QUICK CHECK OF DUAL POL PRODUCTS WOULD REVEAL
THOSE OBJECTS WERE MOST LIKELY BUGS. ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN,
TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH DEW POINTS
LINGERING IN THE UPPER 60S. ZOOMING OUT A BIT, A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS BUILDING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT
IS STALLED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES SUGGEST ANOTHER DRY, UNEVENTFUL NIGHT
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE KEYS. THE 00Z SOUNDING DID NOT EVEN SAMPLE
A DISTINCT MOIST LAYER. WINDS ESTIMATED BY THE SOUNDING WERE
NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL EAST NORTHEASTERLIES IN THE LOWEST 6000
FEET, BEFORE CHANGING TO WEST NORTHWESTERLIES ABOVE 13000 FEET.
DRY AIR LINGERS OVER THE KEYS, BREEZES ARE LIGHT TO GENTLE, AND NO
INSTABILITY. IF THERE IS ANYTHING TO TAKE AWAY FROM THIS WEATHER
PATTERN FOR TONIGHT, CONDITIONS WILL BE EXCEPTIONAL FOR
STARGAZING.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1012 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH FOR THE 00Z TAF
PERIOD. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL OSCILLATE BETWEEN NORTH
NORTHEASTERLIES AND EAST NORTHEASTERIES ON A DAILY CYCLE. EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WIHT A STRAY CLOUD NEAR FL030 WITH NEAR NIL
RAIN CHANCES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1033 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2025
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, LIGHT,
PREDOMINANTLY NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL LINGER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TOMORROW DUE TO WEAK RIDGING ACROSS FLORIDA. A CONTINENTAL
HIGH WILL PUSH IN TO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EARLY THIS WEEK,
RESULTING IN FRESHENING NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY BREEZES. THIS HIGH
WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC, AND AFTER MID WEEK,
BREEZES SHOULD COLLAPSE AS THE PRESSURE FIELD BECOMES NEBULOUS.
PROBABILITY IS INCREASING THAT A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD
THROUGH KEYS COASTAL WATERS VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST, RESULTING
IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE START OF A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FRESH
NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY BREEZES.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 304 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2025
A MODEST MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RIDE EASTWARD INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL HELP TO REINFORCE THE WARM AND DRY MID LEVELS. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST AS AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH ALSO MIGRATES INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO MOISTENS AND DEEPEN WITH
BOUTS OF LOW LEVEL VEERING MAKING AN APPEARANCE. AS A RESULT,
WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING TUESDAY. THIS IS NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE. NO SIGNIFICANT TREND IN TEMPERATURES
IS EXPECTED.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO NEARLY COLLAPSE AROUND MID WEEK AS THE DEEP
LAYERED RIDGING GETS KICKED OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC BY BROAD
TROUGHING SWINGING EASTWARD ACROSS THE UNITED STATES. THIS LULL
IS EXPECTED TO LAST A DAY AS GUIDANCE IS BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT
WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE THANKSGIVING NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.
ASSOCIATED FRESHENING BREEZES WILL BE DRIVEN BY A ROBUST SURFACE
HIGH BUILDING IN BEHIND A LIFTING OUT PREFRONTAL TROUGH THAT
NEVER REACHES THE KEYS. THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STUCK IN
PROGRESSIVE MODE. AS A RESULT, NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY POST COLD
FRONT BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO VEER QUICKLY NORTHEAST TO EAST BY
THIS WEEKEND. ANY COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED TO BE ONLY A COUPLE TO FEW
DEGREES WITH DEW POINTS VISITING THE MID 60S BRIEFLY IN WAKE OF
THE FRONT. WHILE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE CURRENTLY ADVERTISED FOR
THE LONG RANGE FORECAST, THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT THIS IS ON
THE LOW SIDE. THIS IS DUE TO THE FAST VEERED FLOW AND COPIOUS
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE SLUNG IN BY THE STALLING FRONT, AND VERY
DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 71 81 73 82 / 0 0 0 10
MARATHON 72 81 74 81 / 0 0 0 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AJP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....MJV
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