225
FXUS62 KKEY 241616
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1116 AM EST MON NOV 24 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
-DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL RIDE EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, KEEPING RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST IN
THE SHORT TERM.
-A BROAD CONTINENTAL HIGH WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN MODERATELY
STRENGTHENING BREEZES AND SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES EARLY TO MID WEEK.
-PROBABILITY IS INCREASING THAT A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
KEYS REGION EARLY FRIDAY. ONLY A MODEST AMOUNT OF COOLING IS
EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1056 AM EST MON NOV 24 2025
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A BROAD, WEAK, QUASISTATIONARY FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, WITH A STRONG AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS IN ITS WAKE.
AS THE FRONTAL FEATURE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN, THE HIGH REIGNS
SUPREME, DOMINATING THE SYNOPTIC WEATHER FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS.
GOES VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS STRUGGLING TO DETECT ANY CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA, WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY APPROACHING
80F AT THIS LATE MORNING HOUR. THE PRE-HOLIDAY FORECAST REMAINS
DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM. WE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK A COLD FRONT
PROGGED TO APPROACH THE KEYS AROUND THANKSGIVING, WHEN RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE REINTRODUCED TO THE FORECAST--MORE ON THIS LATER.
UNTIL THEN, NO CHANGES PROPOSED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1056 AM EST MON NOV 24 2025
A CONTINENTAL HIGH WILL GRADUALLY PUSH OFFSHORE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, RESULTING IN FRESHENING NORTHEAST TO
EAST BREEZES. AS THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD INTO
THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC, BREEZES WILL COLLAPSE BY MIDWEEK, AS
THE PRESSURE FIELD BECOMES NEBULOUS. PROBABILITY IS INCREASING
THAT A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS
COASTAL WATERS LATER THIS WEEK BEFORE STALLING, RESULTING IN WHAT
APPEARS TO BE THE START OF A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FRESHENED
NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY BREEZES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
REQUIRED BEGINNING AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY LASTING
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1056 AM EST MON NOV 24 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH ISLAND TERMINALS
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING. NEAR-SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT
OF THE NORTHEAST, BECOMING EAST AND MODESTLY FRESHENING LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 81 73 82 74 / 0 0 10 10
MARATHON 81 74 81 74 / 0 0 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....BT
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT
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