446
FXUS62 KKEY 250313
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1013 PM EST MON NOV 24 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL LIFT EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, KEEPING RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE
FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM.
-A PAIR OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT AND MERGE, RESULTING IN A BRIEF
SURGE IN BREEZES TUESDAY BEFORE SLACKENING MIDWEEK.
-PROBABILITY IS INCREASING THAT A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
KEYS REGION EARLY FRIDAY. ONLY A MODEST AMOUNT OF COOLING IS
EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1010 PM EST MON NOV 24 2025
DRY SEASON CONTINUED UNABATED ACROSS THE KEYS FOR THE LAST MONDAY
OF NOVEMBER. HIGH TEMPERATURES ROSE ABOVE THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE
OF 79 TO 80 WHILE DEW POINTS PEAKED IN THE LOW 70S. WINDS DID
BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN, AND IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS
BREEZES FRESHENED TO MODERATE EASTERLIES. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY,
CLOUD COVER HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE CWA, BUT SKIES ARE STILL
MOSTLY CLEAR. KBYX RADAR RETURNS STILL SHOW A NEARLY RAIN FREE SKY
ACROSS THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS. SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS,
SPECIFICALLY THE GOES EAST NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS, HIGHLIGHT
SHALLOW STRATUS CLOUDS SOUTH OF MARCO ISLAND AND A STRAY CIRRUS
CLOUD.
TONIGHT'S KKEY 00Z SOUNDING WAS NOT TOO SURPRISING GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED OBSERVATIONS. ONCE AGAIN, ALMOST NO CAPE EXISTED
OVER KEY WEST. A PAIR OF WELL DEVELOPED SUBSIDENCE INVERSIONS WILL
KEEP SHOWER COVERAGE NEAR NIL DESPITE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. THE SAMPLED PWAT ROSE ABOVE THE 25TH PERCENTILE
FOR THE DAY IN CONTRAST TO YESTERDAY'S VALUE NEAR THE 10TH
PERCENTILE. A GLANCE AT THE ADVECTED LAYER PWAT PRODUCT SHOWS
WHERE THE MOISTURE IS COMING FROM WHEN LOOKING AT THE SURFACE TO
850 MB, AND THE 850 TO 700 MB LAYERS. A PLUME OF SLIGHTLY MORE
MOIST AIR IS ADVECTING FROM MIAMI'S AREA TO THE KEYS. THE
CONCLUSION AFTER LOOKING AT THESE OBSERVATIONS IS THAT ANOTHER
RATHER UNEVENTFUL NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR THE KEYS. SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR, WINDS OUT OF THE EAST, AND DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.
ELSEWHERE IN THE COUNTRY, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHEAST
TEXAS IS DEVELOPING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. A
CLIPPER SYSTEM IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BY
SUNRISE, THE 500 MB TROUGHS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SURFACE FEATURES
WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO INTERACT. KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST,
BECAUSE A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS COMING. CHECK BACK
TOMORROW FOR AN UPDATED FORECAST!
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1010 PM EST MON NOV 24 2025
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA
KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, A CONTINENTAL HIGH WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, RESULTING IN
FRESHENING NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES. WHILE THE CENTER OF THIS
HIGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC, BREEZES
WILL COLLAPSE BY MIDWEEK AND THE PRESSURE FIELD WILL BECOME
NEBULOUS. PROBABILITY IS INCREASING THAT A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS LATER THIS WEEK
BEFORE STALLING, RESULTING IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE START OF A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF FRESHENED NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY BREEZES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1010 PM EST MON NOV 24 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH FOR THE 00Z TAF PERIOD.
NEAR SURFACE WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY NEAR 10 KNOTS OUT OF THE EAST
SOUTHEAST. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR, AND ANY CLOUD BASES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE FL025.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 73 82 74 82 / 0 10 10 20
MARATHON 74 81 74 81 / 0 10 10 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AJP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....MJV
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