536
FXUS62 KKEY 251518
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1018 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-EASTERLY BREEZES WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAINFALL IN THE
SHORT TERM.
-THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WILL SERVE AS A TURNING POINT IN OUR
WEATHER PATTERN, AS A COLD FRONT MARCHES DOWN THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA, PUSHING THROUGH OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
-THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND, AND WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 936 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM
NORTHERN FLORIDA EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS
FEATURE IS VERY WEAK, WITH A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OFF THE VIRGINIA COASTLINE IN ITS WAKE. RETURN, ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS FEATURE IS PUMPING IN GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AT THIS LATE TUESDAY MORNING HOUR. KBYX
RADAR IS DETECTING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS, SUPPORTED BY A LOW-
LEVEL VEERING PROFILE SAMPLED IN THIS MORNING'S 12Z SOUNDING
CONDUCTED AT KEY. OUTSIDE OF THESE ISOLATED SHOWERS, SKIES ARE
PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE KEYS, WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY NEARING
THEIR MAXIMA FOR THE DAY IN THE LOWER 80S.Y ET ANOTHER RATHER
ROUTINE FORECAST FOR TODAY. ENJOY THE QUIET, TRANQUIL WEATHER, AS
CHANGES ARE LIKELY COMING BEGINNING LATE THANKSGIVING, WHEN A
PERIOD OF WINDY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AT TIMES WILL COMMENCE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 936 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT ACROSS
THE FLORIDA KEYS LOCAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, RIDGING EXTENDING
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY PULL AWAY
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE PRESSURE FIELD
ACROSS THE AREA WILL WEAKEN, AND OUR GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY
BREEZES WILL BECOME LIGHT TO GENTLE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE
CONDITIONS WON'T LAST LONG, AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEEPENING TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS
LATE ON THURSDAY. BREEZES WILL FRESHEN DRASTICALLY LATE THURSDAY
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES, AND THE END OF THE WEEK WILL SEE A PERIOD
OF FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES, ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 936 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
ALTHOUGH A LIGHT PASSING SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE
VICINITY OF EITHER TERMINAL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. NEAR-SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 82 74 82 72 / 10 10 20 30
MARATHON 82 74 82 72 / 10 10 20 30
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....BT
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT
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