721
FXUS62 KKEY 251717
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1217 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-EASTERLY BREEZES WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAINFALL IN THE
SHORT TERM.
-THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WILL SERVE AS A TURNING POINT IN OUR
WEATHER PATTERN, AS A COLD FRONT MARCHES DOWN THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA, PUSHING THROUGH OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
-THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND, AND WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
ALTHOUGH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, EXPECTED COVERAGE AND LIMITED IMPACTS TO
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WARRANTS KEEPING OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. NEAR- SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS, MODESTLY SLACKENING AFTER 00Z THIS
EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 936 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT ACROSS
THE FLORIDA KEYS LOCAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, RIDGING EXTENDING
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY PULL AWAY
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE PRESSURE FIELD
ACROSS THE AREA WILL WEAKEN, AND OUR GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY
BREEZES WILL BECOME LIGHT TO GENTLE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE
CONDITIONS WON'T LAST LONG, AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEEPENING TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS
LATE ON THURSDAY. BREEZES WILL FRESHEN DRASTICALLY LATE THURSDAY
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES, AND THE END OF THE WEEK WILL SEE A PERIOD
OF FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES, ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.
FORECAST
ISSUED AT 529 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE DRASTICALLY OVER THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.
AS THE RIDGING IN PLACE PULLS FARTHER AWAY, A TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL SEND A COLD FRONT DOWN THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. BREEZES WILL BACK FROM THE EAST TO THE NORTH AHEAD OF
THE FRONT DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY, AND BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN AS THE FRONT ARRIVES LATER THAT NIGHT.
THERE IS STILL LOWER CONFIDENCE RELATED TO WHEN SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL INITIATE AS THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO PROJECT HIGHER POPS
EARLIER ON THE HOLIDAY WHEREAS THE NBM IS STILL SHOWING LOWER POPS
WELL AFTER DINNERTIME. REGARDLESS OF THE FINER DETAILS RELATED TO
SENSIBLE WEATHER, THIS COLD FRONT IS GOING TO BRING A DISH OF
COOLER AIR WITH SOME RAINFALL ON THE SIDE. BE SURE TO SECURE YOUR
DINNER PLATE, SO IT DOESN'T BLOW AWAY!
THE FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO STALL SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF
OUR SOUTHERN WATERS, RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED POPS AND
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS CARRYING ON INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL A LITTLE MORE FESTIVE AS HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY BOTTOM OUT IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S. WHEN THE FRONT DECAYS NEAR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND, HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BE ABLE TO BUILD BACK IN AND
SEASONABLE, DRIER CONDITIONS WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO RETURN.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....BT
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page