835
FXUS62 KKEY 260339
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1039 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
-EASTERLY BREEZES WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAINFALL IN THE
SHORT TERM.
-THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WILL SERVE AS A TURNING POINT IN OUR
WEATHER PATTERN, AS A COLD FRONT MARCHES DOWN THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA, PUSHING THROUGH OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
-THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND, AND WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1039 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
IT HAS BEEN QUIET FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT UNTIL ABOUT AN HOUR AGO.
SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO POP UP IN THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW. MOST
OF THESE SHOWERS ARE DISSIPATING AS THEY APPROACH THE ISLAND
CHAIN. THAT BEING SAID, SOME SPRINKLES HAVE MANAGED TO PASS
THROUGH SOME ISLAND COMMUNITIES, BUT NO MEASURABLE AMOUNTS THUS
FAR. MEANWHILE, EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH THE STRONGER WINDS SOUTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. SADLY
THIS FLOW IS ALSO PUMPING IN DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S, WHICH IS
MAKING THINGS FEEL A LITTLE STICKY.
FOR THE OVERNIGHT, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE LEADING TO A SLIGHTLY LARGER COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. RAIN
CHANCES, HOWEVER, WILL REMAIN SLIGHT AT BEST (20 PERCENT), GIVEN
THAT WE LACK ANY ORGANIZED LIFT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1039 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
RIDGING EXTENDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY PULL AWAY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS
THIS HAPPENS, THE PRESSURE FIELD ACROSS THE AREA WILL WEAKEN, AND
OUR GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY BREEZES WILL BECOME LIGHT TO
GENTLE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS WON'T LAST LONG, AS
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS LATE ON THURSDAY. BREEZES WILL
FRESHEN DRASTICALLY LATE THURSDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES, AND THE
END OF THE WEEK WILL SEE A PERIOD OF FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES,
ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
SHOWER COVERAGE IS GRADUALLY INCREASING IN THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW. THEREFORE HAVE ADDED VCSH FOR THE MTH FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY HAS STAYED TO THE EAST OF EYW AND THEREFORE
WILL CONTINUE TO OMIT FOR FUTURE AMENDMENTS.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 529 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE DRASTICALLY OVER THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.
AS THE RIDGING IN PLACE PULLS FARTHER AWAY, A TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL SEND A COLD FRONT DOWN THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. BREEZES WILL BACK FROM THE EAST TO THE NORTH AHEAD OF
THE FRONT DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY, AND BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN AS THE FRONT ARRIVES LATER THAT NIGHT.
THERE IS STILL LOWER CONFIDENCE RELATED TO WHEN SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL INITIATE AS THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO PROJECT HIGHER POPS
EARLIER ON THE HOLIDAY WHEREAS THE NBM IS STILL SHOWING LOWER
POPS WELL AFTER DINNERTIME. REGARDLESS OF THE FINER DETAILS
RELATED TO SENSIBLE WEATHER, THIS COLD FRONT IS GOING TO BRING A
DISH OF COOLER AIR WITH SOME RAINFALL ON THE SIDE. BE SURE TO
SECURE YOUR DINNER PLATE, SO IT DOESN'T BLOW AWAY!
THE FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO STALL SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF
OUR SOUTHERN WATERS, RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED POPS AND
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS CARRYING ON INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL A LITTLE MORE FESTIVE AS HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY BOTTOM OUT IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S. WHEN THE FRONT DECAYS NEAR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND, HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BE ABLE TO BUILD BACK IN AND
SEASONABLE, DRIER CONDITIONS WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO RETURN.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....LIW
DATA ACQUISITION.....MC
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