219
FXUS62 KKEY 261138
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
638 AM EST WED NOV 26 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-A WEAK PRESSURE FIELD ACROSS THE AREA WILL LEAD TO SLACKENING
BREEZES, BUT ON AND OFF SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.
-THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WILL SERVE AS A TURNING POINT IN OUR
WEATHER PATTERN, AS A COLD FRONT MARCHES DOWN THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA, PUSHING THROUGH OUR AREA LATE TOMORROW AND INTO
FRIDAY.
-THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND, AND WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 455 AM EST WED NOV 26 2025
THE WEATHER HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE EXCITING DURING THIS OVERNIGHT
SHIFT AS CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING NORTHWEST THROUGH
OUR FORECAST AREA. AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE ISLAND
CHAIN HAVE REPORTED ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL,
BUT RADAR ESTIMATES HAVE SUGGESTED SOME OF THE MODERATE SHOWERS
OVER OUR WATERS HAVE PRODUCED AS MUCH AS AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS NOTED IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AS DEW
POINTS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. CIMSS MIMIC LAYER PWAT SHOWS
VALUES NEAR 1.25" ACROSS THE AREA, AND THE 12Z BALLOON LAUNCH WILL
LIKELY SHOW THAT MOST OF THAT MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO THE LOWER
LEVELS. WHILE THERE ISN'T A LARGE SCALE LIFTING MECHANISM
AVAILABLE, CONFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A COL AREA NEARBY MAY JUST
BE ENOUGH TO ENCOURAGE CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY. OPTING TO
MAINTAIN A 30% CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE ISLAND CHAIN TODAY.
THE COL AREA MENTIONED ABOVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
COURSE OF TODAY AND TONIGHT AS TROUGHING ENTERING THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE U.S. DIGS DEEPER INTO THE REGION. THIS ISN'T AN IDEAL SETUP
FOR A HOLIDAY, BUT THE FIRST HALF OF THANKSGIVING DOESN'T LOOK
TERRIBLE AS LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES TURN NORTHERLY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT ANY
POINT DURING THE DAY, BUT CAMS AREN'T INDICATING ANY WIDESPREAD
SHIELDS OF RAIN. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO
ARRIVE LATE TOMORROW NIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, MEANING
THANKSGIVING DINNER SHOULD BE SPARED. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL CHARGE IN OVERNIGHT, AND MOS GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING DEW
POINTS AS LOW AS NEAR 60F ARE POSSIBLE.
EVEN THOUGH THIS PATTERN IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE, THE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND, RESULTING
IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL LIFT OUT OF THE AREA EITHER LATE
SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY, AND DRIER CONDITIONS MAY MAKE A SHORT-
LIVED RETURN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 455 AM EST WED NOV 26 2025
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS LOCAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, THE TAIL END OF A
SURFACE RIDGE WILL PULL AWAY TODAY, AND A WEAK PRESSURE FIELD LEFT
IN ITS PLACE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES TODAY. THESE
CONDITIONS WON'T LAST LONG, AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEEPENING TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS
LATE ON THANKSGIVING. BREEZES WILL FRESHEN DRASTICALLY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES, AND THE END OF THE WEEK
WILL SEE A PERIOD OF FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES, ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EST WED NOV 26 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS TODAY.
WITH THAT SAID, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA MAY
PERIODICALLY RESULT IN SUB VFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TO GENTLE OUT OF THE EAST.
CLIMATE
IN 1950, THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES OF 51F WAS RECORDED IN
MARATHON. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR MARATHON DATE BACK TO 1950.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 83 72 81 66 / 30 40 40 30
MARATHON 82 74 80 66 / 30 40 40 40
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....11
DATA ACQUISITION.....11
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