072
FXUS62 KKEY 261800
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
100 PM EST WED NOV 26 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, ALONG WITH
A FEW PASSING LIGHT SHOWERS AT TIMES.
-THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WILL SERVE AS A TURNING POINT IN OUR
WEATHER PATTERN, AS A COLD FRONT MARCHES DOWN THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA, PUSHING THROUGH OUR AREA LATE TOMORROW AND INTO
FRIDAY.
-THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND, AND WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS MARINE ZONES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM EST WED NOV 26 2025
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES EXTENDING
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES. THE FIRST FRONT I
DRAPED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, WITH A SECOND, STRONGER
FRONT LAGGING BY SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. CLOSER TO HOME, THE
FLORIDA KEYS ARE ON THE PERIPHERY OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. THE INTERACTION
OF THE FRONTS TO THE NORTH AND THE HIGH TO THE EAST HAVE THE
FLORIDA KEYS IN LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES, WHICH
ARE SLOWLY SLACKENING, AS THE FRONTS APPROACH FROM THE NORTH. THE
12Z MORNING SOUNDING AT KEY SAMPLED INCREASING MOISTURE UP TO 700
MB OWED TO THE WANING LOW-LEVEL RIDGING, WITH STILL TREMENDOUS DRY
AIR ABOVE, AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE HASN'T BUDGET YET. KBYX RADAR
HAS DETECTED SCATTERED SHOWERS, MAINLY CONFINED TO THE OFFSHORE
GULF WATERS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. AMPLE SOLAR INSOLATION
OUTSIDE OF THESE SHOWERS WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S
AT MOST COMMUNITIES. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE INHERITED FULL-
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 200 PM EST WED NOV 26 2025
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY THIS
AFTERNOON. A WEAK PRESSURE FIELD WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO GENTLE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEEPENING TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS
LATE ON THURSDAY. BREEZES WILL FRESHEN DRASTICALLY LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, WITH FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES AND
AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
BREEZES WILL BEGIN TO SLACKEN BY SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EST WED NOV 26 2025
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS THROUGH
12Z THURSDAY MORNING, OCCASIONAL PASSING SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. THESE PASSING SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF BOUTS OF SUB VFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES, BUT THE RANDOM NATURE TO THE TIMING AND
COVERAGE WARRANTS ONLY A GENERAL MENTION OF VCSH AT THIS TIME LATE
IN THE TAF PERIOD, AS THE SHOWER COVERAGE LIKELY INCREASES. NEAR-
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 83 72 81 66 / 30 40 40 30
MARATHON 82 74 80 66 / 30 40 40 40
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....BT
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT
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