756
FXUS62 KKEY 270344
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1044 PM EST WED NOV 26 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
-LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, ALONG
WITH A FEW PASSING LIGHT SHOWERS AT TIMES.
-THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WILL SERVE AS A TURNING POINT IN OUR
WEATHER PATTERN, AS A COLD FRONT MARCHES DOWN THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA, PUSHING THROUGH OUR AREA LATE TOMORROW AND INTO
FRIDAY.
-THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND, AND WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS MARINE ZONES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1044 PM EST WED NOV 26 2025
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIOD BEGAN WITH RESIDUAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS THAT WERE MOVING THROUGH THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW. ONE
OR TWO OF THESE SHOWERS ACTUALLY MANAGED TO BECOME ROBUST ENOUGH
TO BECOME A THUNDERSTORM. THESE WERE VERY SHORT LIVED AND ALL OF
THE ACTIVITY DIMINISHED AFTER SUNSET. WITHIN THE LAST HOUR, WE
HAVE SEEN SHOWERS POPPING BACK UP. THIS IS BECAUSE, A HIGH
PRESSURE IS MOVING FURTHER TO THE EAST AND AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA
KEYS, WHICH IS LEAVING US IN A WEAKENED PRESSURE FIELD. THIS
WEAKENED PRESSURE FIELD IS LEADING TO LIGHTER WINDS AND ALLOWING
MASS AND MOMENTUM TO COLLIDE AND BUNCH UP. THE RESULT IS THIS
LATEST BATCH OF SHOWERS.
GIVEN THIS ATMOSPHERIC BOTTLENECK THAT IS OCCURRING AND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, SAW NO NEED TO ADJUST POPS FROM THE
CURRENT 30 PERCENT WE'RE ADVERTISING. IF ANY OF THESE BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS ARE STRONG ENOUGH, WE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING, BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 25 MPH, AND REDUCE
VISIBILITIES WITHIN HEAVIER RAINFALL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1044 PM EST WED NOV 26 2025
A SURFACE RIDGE IS PULLING AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND HAS RESULTED THE PRESSURE FIELD WEAKENING. THIS HAS LEAD TO
BREEZES SLACKENING TO LIGHT TO GENTLE FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS LATE ON THURSDAY. BREEZES WILL
FRESHEN DRASTICALLY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT,
WITH FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES AND AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BREEZES WILL BEGIN TO SLACKEN BY
SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM EST WED NOV 26 2025
SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP, MAINLY AROUND THE EYW TERMINAL,
THEREFORE HAVE INSERTED VCSH FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE MTH
TERMINAL WAS OMITTED FOR NOW BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
FUTURE AMENDMENTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND AT TIMES VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY MORNING. BY THE AFTERNOON, A
COLD FRONT IS POISED TO SWEEP THROUGH WITH A SHARP INCREASE IN
NORTHERLY WINDS. JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD, EXPECT A
CROSSWIND MAGNITUDE OF GREATER THAN 22 KNOTS TO DEVELOP.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 455 AM EST WED NOV 26 2025
THE WEATHER HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE EXCITING DURING THIS OVERNIGHT
SHIFT AS CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING NORTHWEST THROUGH
OUR FORECAST AREA. AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE ISLAND
CHAIN HAVE REPORTED ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL,
BUT RADAR ESTIMATES HAVE SUGGESTED SOME OF THE MODERATE SHOWERS
OVER OUR WATERS HAVE PRODUCED AS MUCH AS AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS NOTED IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AS DEW
POINTS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. CIMSS MIMIC LAYER PWAT SHOWS
VALUES NEAR 1.25" ACROSS THE AREA, AND THE 12Z BALLOON LAUNCH WILL
LIKELY SHOW THAT MOST OF THAT MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO THE LOWER
LEVELS. WHILE THERE ISN'T A LARGE SCALE LIFTING MECHANISM
AVAILABLE, CONFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A COL AREA NEARBY MAY JUST
BE ENOUGH TO ENCOURAGE CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY. OPTING TO
MAINTAIN A 30% CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE ISLAND CHAIN TODAY.
THE COL AREA MENTIONED ABOVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
COURSE OF TODAY AND TONIGHT AS TROUGHING ENTERING THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE U.S. DIGS DEEPER INTO THE REGION. THIS ISN'T AN IDEAL SETUP
FOR A HOLIDAY, BUT THE FIRST HALF OF THANKSGIVING DOESN'T LOOK
TERRIBLE AS LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES TURN NORTHERLY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT ANY
POINT DURING THE DAY, BUT CAMS AREN'T INDICATING ANY WIDESPREAD
SHIELDS OF RAIN. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO
ARRIVE LATE TOMORROW NIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, MEANING
THANKSGIVING DINNER SHOULD BE SPARED. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL CHARGE IN OVERNIGHT, AND MOS GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING DEW
POINTS AS LOW AS NEAR 60F ARE POSSIBLE.
EVEN THOUGH THIS PATTERN IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE, THE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND, RESULTING
IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL LIFT OUT OF THE AREA EITHER LATE
SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY, AND DRIER CONDITIONS MAY MAKE A SHORT-
LIVED RETURN.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....LIW
DATA ACQUISITION.....MC
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