251
FXUS62 KKEY 271013
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
513 AM EST THU NOV 27 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO WAX AND WANE TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
ON ITS WAY TO THE FLORIDA KEYS, BUT HEAVY, IMPACTFUL RAINFALL
ISN'T EXPECTED AS THERE IS STILL SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR ALOFT.
-THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT, AND
INTO TOMORROW MORNING, BRINGING A HOLIDAY DISH OF BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS AND DRIER AIR.
-THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND, AND THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF
ELEVATED SURFACE WINDS WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
BEING ISSUED AS EARLY AS TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 505 AM EST THU NOV 27 2025
OUR KBYX RADAR HAS BEEN BUSY DURING THIS OVERNIGHT SHIFT AS IT
HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK POCKETS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. OUR SPARSE NETWORK OF SURFACE OBSERVATIONS MEANS IT
IS DIFFICULT TO OBTAIN GROUND TRUTH IN TERMS OF HOW MUCH RAIN
THESE SHOWERS ARE PRODUCING, BUT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT HAS MEASURED 0.03” OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. RADAR-DERIVED
THREE HOUR STORM TOTALS SUGGEST SOME OF THE MODERATE SHOWERS OVER
OUR WATERS HAVE PRODUCED ANYWHERE FROM 0.75” TO 1.00” OF RAINFALL,
BUT THESE ARE IN AREAS WHERE MULTIPLE SHOWERS HAVE CROSSED. IF
YOU HAVE LAST MINUTE SHOPPING TO DO FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY,
YOU MAY WANT TO CHECK THE RADAR BEFORE STEPPING OUT THIS MORNING.
GOES-19 IR IMAGERY SHOWS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH CLOUD DECKS IN
THE LOWER LEVELS AS WELL AS THE UPPER LEVELS. THE 00Z SOUNDING
FROM KKEY LAST NIGHT SHOWED A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS, SO WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW MUCH DRY AIR IS STILL THERE
WHEN THE 12Z BALLOON IS LAUNCHED IN A FEW HOURS.
WE ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF TRANSITIONING TO A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER COURTESY OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GOES-19 IR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE COLD FRONT ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, AND
EXTENDING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS JUST NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT ARE SHOWING DEW POINTS
IN THE LOWER 30S, A TESTAMENT TO THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO PASS
ACROSS THE KEYS LATER TONIGHT, SO DINNERTIME FESTIVITIES SHOULDN’T
SEE TOO MUCH EXCITEMENT OUTSIDE OF THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WE HAVE
TODAY. NONE OF US WILL BE ABLE TO MISS THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT AS
IT DISHES OUT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS, BUT THE DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN SHOULD HELP TO CLEAR OUT SOME OF THESE SHOWERS. IT IS
WORTH NOTING HERE THAT OUR LOCAL WATERS WILL LIKELY SEE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES AS EARLY AS TONIGHT DUE TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THESE
WINDS, AND THEY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. THE NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THESE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
EFFICIENTLY ADVECT COOLER AIR IN, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 60S. ANYONE ACCLIMATED TO OUR
USUALLY BEAUTIFUL WEATHER MAY NEED TO REACH FOR A JACKET IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS PATTERN WILL HELP TO LIFT THE
REMNANTS OF THE COLD FRONT AWAY QUICKLY, AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY. LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST A WARM FRONT NUDGING
THROUGH SOMETIME BETWEEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
INCREASED MOISTURE AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO THE RESULTING SENSIBLE WEATHER IS
RELATIVELY LOW SINCE WE HAVEN’T CLEARED OUR THANKSGIVING COLD
FRONT YET.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 505 AM EST THU NOV 27 2025
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS LOCAL WATERS, BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. FROM SYNOPSIS,
A WEAK PRESSURE FIELD ACROSS THE AREA WILL ENCOURAGE LIGHT TO
GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES THIS MORNING, BUT A COLD FRONT
PUSHING DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL ARRIVE TO OUR MARINE ZONES
LATE TONIGHT. BREEZES WILL BACK TO THE NORTH AND FRESHEN QUICKLY,
AND THE LINGERING FRONT WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED BY
TONIGHT, AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEKEND. BREEZES WILL GRADUALLY SLACKEN OVER THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL WAX AND WANE THROUGHOUT THE MARINE
FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EST THU NOV 27 2025
KBYX RADAR HAS BEEN DETECTING SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS
FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO
REACH THE ISLAND CHAIN AND HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING AS THEY APPROACH.
THEREFORE, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH OCCASIONAL BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS. THEN A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PRESS THROUGH
THE KEYS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SHARP INCREASE IN
NORTHERLY WINDS. THERE IS CURRENTLY THE POTENTIAL FOR A CROSSWIND OF
GREATER THAN 22 KNOTS TO DEVELOP BY THIS EVENING CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT.
CLIMATE
CLIMATE
IN 1949, THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 54F WAS RECORDED IN KEY
WEST. TEMPERATURES RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872. ALSO, IN
1953, THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 51F WAS RECORDED IN
MARATHON. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR MARATHON DATE BACK TO 1950.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 81 65 75 66 / 40 30 20 20
MARATHON 80 65 74 67 / 40 40 20 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MJV
DATA ACQUISITION.....MJV
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