777
FXUS62 KKEY 271517
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1017 AM EST THU NOV 27 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO WAX AND WANE TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
ON ITS WAY TO THE FLORIDA KEYS, BUT HEAVY, IMPACTFUL RAINFALL
ISN'T EXPECTED AS THERE IS STILL SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR ALOFT.
-THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
INTO TOMORROW MORNING, BRINGING A HOLIDAY DISH OF BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS AND DRIER AIR.
-THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND, AND THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF
ELEVATED SURFACE WINDS WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
BEING ISSUED AS EARLY AS TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1020 AM EST THU NOV 27 2025
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE RATHER DYNAMIC ACROSS THE KEYS THIS
THANKSGIVING MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
OVER THE GULF, BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CUBA, AND STRONG
WINDS ALOFT ARE FUNNELING DEEPER LAYERS OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE
KEYS. SCANS FROM THE KBYX RADAR SHOW A MESS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE WESTERN WATERS WITH MEASURABLE RAINFALL OVER THE LOWER
KEYS. RADAR DERIVED TOTALS ESTIMATED ALMOST HALF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF LOWER SUGARLOAF KEYS WITH ISOLATED POINTS
OF NEARLY ONE INCH OF RAINFALL JUST SOUTH OF SUMMERLAND KEY. IT
SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A SURPRISE THAT THE MORNING 12Z KKEY
SOUNDING SAMPLED AN ENVIRONMENTAL PWAT THAT WAS JUST ABOVE THE
90TH PERCENTILE VALUE FOR THE DAY. HOWEVER, THE 675-300 MB LAYER
WAS RATHER DRY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CAP BELOW 20 KFT FOR MOST OF THE
DAY, AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE
FORECAST.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
KEYS THIS AFTERNOON. BUOYS NORTH OF THE FRONT, LOCATED WEST OF
TAMPA, ARE SAMPLING WINDS GUSTING TO 21 KNOTS. WINDS WILL MAKE A
RAPID TRANSITION FROM RATHER LIGHT TO BREEZY PRETTY QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET. DEW POINTS WILL ALSO DROP THIS EVENING, SO DEHUMIDIFIERS
WILL RECEIVE A BREAK LATER TONIGHT. CURRENT CONDITIONS, HOWEVER,
DO NOT PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A REASON TO CHANGE THE FORECAST.
THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON IS ON TRACK TO BE HUMID WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO NORTHERLIES, OFF AND ON SHOWERS, AND A VERY LOW CHANCE OF A
STRAY THUNDERSTORM. CHECK BACK TONIGHT FOR UPDATES ON WHAT THE
WINDS WILL BE DOING THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1020 AM EST THU NOV 27 2025
SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS ARE SLOWLY MOVING TOWARDS A COLD
FRONT LOCATED NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL MANAGED TO FORM BETWEEN EYW AND MTH, AND PERIODS OF SHRA
ARE EXPECTED NEAR EYW. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS. THE COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE KEYS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
RAPIDLY SHIFT NORTHERLY AND BUILD TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CROSSWINDS IN
EXCESS OF 22 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 505 AM EST THU NOV 27 2025
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS LOCAL WATERS, BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED TONIGHT AFTER A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. FROM
SYNOPSIS, A WEAK PRESSURE FIELD ACROSS THE AREA WILL ENCOURAGE
LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT A COLD FRONT PUSHING DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL ARRIVE TO
OUR MARINE ZONES LATE TONIGHT. BREEZES WILL BACK TO THE NORTH AND
FRESHEN QUICKLY, AND THE LINGERING FRONT WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO
STRONG BREEZES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE
NEEDED BY TONIGHT, AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEKEND. BREEZES WILL GRADUALLY SLACKEN OVER THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL WAX AND WANE
THROUGHOUT THE MARINE FORECAST PERIOD.
FORECAST
ISSUED AT 505 AM EST THU NOV 27 2025
WE ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF TRANSITIONING TO A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER COURTESY OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GOES-19 IR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE COLD FRONT ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, AND
EXTENDING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS JUST NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT ARE SHOWING DEW POINTS
IN THE LOWER 30S, A TESTAMENT TO THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO PASS
ACROSS THE KEYS LATER TONIGHT, SO DINNERTIME FESTIVITIES SHOULD NOT
SEE TOO MUCH EXCITEMENT OUTSIDE OF THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WE HAVE
TODAY. NONE OF US WILL BE ABLE TO MISS THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT AS
IT DISHES OUT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS, BUT THE DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN SHOULD HELP TO CLEAR OUT SOME OF THESE SHOWERS. IT IS
WORTH NOTING HERE THAT OUR LOCAL WATERS WILL LIKELY SEE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES AS EARLY AS TONIGHT DUE TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THESE
WINDS, AND THEY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. THE NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THESE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
EFFICIENTLY ADVECT COOLER AIR IN, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 60S. ANYONE ACCLIMATED TO OUR
USUALLY BEAUTIFUL WEATHER MAY NEED TO REACH FOR A JACKET IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS PATTERN WILL HELP TO LIFT THE
REMNANTS OF THE COLD FRONT AWAY QUICKLY, AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY. LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST A WARM FRONT NUDGING
THROUGH SOMETIME BETWEEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
INCREASED MOISTURE AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO THE RESULTING SENSIBLE WEATHER IS
RELATIVELY LOW SINCE WE HAVEN’T CLEARED OUR THANKSGIVING COLD
FRONT YET.
CLIMATE
IN 1949, THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 54F WAS RECORDED IN KEY
WEST. TEMPERATURES RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872. ALSO, IN
1953, THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 51F WAS RECORDED IN
MARATHON. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR MARATHON DATE BACK TO 1950.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 81 65 75 66 / 40 30 20 20
MARATHON 80 65 74 67 / 40 40 20 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AJP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....MJV
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