159
FXUS62 KKEY 280347
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1047 PM EST THU NOV 27 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
-AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND DRIER AIR
EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1035 PM EST THU NOV 27 2025
A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS BARRELED THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS
EVENING. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OF AROUND 5 KNOTS, SHARPLY INCREASED
TO NEAR 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME SHOWERS HAVE SPORADICALLY ACCOMPANIED THE
FRONT WITH ISOLATED STRONGER ACTIVITY BARELY MANAGING TO REACH
THUNDERSTORM STATUS BRIEFLY. FOR THE MOST PART, MOST THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OUT ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS AND DID NOT
SURVIVE AS THEY TREKKED ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN. SOME LOCATIONS
MAY HAVE SEEN A QUICK SPRINKLE BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS REPORTED.
OCEAN REEF IS THE ONLY OUTLIER AS CONVECTION OVER THE MAINLAND
SPILLED OVER INTO OCEAN REEF AND THEY PICKED UP JUST UNDER TWO-
TENTHS OF AN INCH.
GOING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, ADDITIONAL DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS HAS EFFECTIVELY SHUTDOWN THE
PROSPECTS OF PRECIPITATION FOR AT LEAST THE ISLAND CHAIN.
THEREFORE, UPDATE THE FORECAST TO REMOVE MENTIONS OF SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE, AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AND THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
MAXIMIZES, WE WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE IN STRENGTH. MOST OF OUR
WATERS WILL SEE NEAR 25 KNOTS WITH THE SE GULF AND STRAITS OF
FLORIDA WATERS REACHING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1035 PM EST THU NOV 27 2025
FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY REQUIRED THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEKEND. BREEZES WILL GRADUALLY SLACKEN OVER THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL WAX AND WANE
THROUGHOUT THE MARINE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM EST THU NOV 27 2025
COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT THROUGH THE KEYS WITH BOTH EYW AND MTH GOING
NORTHERLY. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE OVERNIGHT, PEAKING TOWARDS
DAWN AND SLIGHTLY SLACKENING DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THAT BEING
SAID, A THREAT FOR CROSSWINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A CROSSWIND MAGNITUDE OF NEAR 25 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1035 PM EST THU NOV 27 2025
ISSUED AT 505 AM EST THU NOV 27 2025
WE ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF TRANSITIONING TO A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER COURTESY OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GOES-19 IR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE COLD FRONT ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, AND
EXTENDING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS JUST NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT ARE SHOWING DEW POINTS
IN THE LOWER 30S, A TESTAMENT TO THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO PASS
ACROSS THE KEYS LATER TONIGHT, SO DINNERTIME FESTIVITIES SHOULD NOT
SEE TOO MUCH EXCITEMENT OUTSIDE OF THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WE HAVE
TODAY. NONE OF US WILL BE ABLE TO MISS THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT AS
IT DISHES OUT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS, BUT THE DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN SHOULD HELP TO CLEAR OUT SOME OF THESE SHOWERS. IT IS
WORTH NOTING HERE THAT OUR LOCAL WATERS WILL LIKELY SEE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES AS EARLY AS TONIGHT DUE TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THESE
WINDS, AND THEY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. THE NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THESE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
EFFICIENTLY ADVECT COOLER AIR IN, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 60S. ANYONE ACCLIMATED TO OUR
USUALLY BEAUTIFUL WEATHER MAY NEED TO REACH FOR A JACKET IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS PATTERN WILL HELP TO LIFT THE
REMNANTS OF THE COLD FRONT AWAY QUICKLY, AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY. LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST A WARM FRONT NUDGING
THROUGH SOMETIME BETWEEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
INCREASED MOISTURE AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO THE RESULTING SENSIBLE WEATHER IS
RELATIVELY LOW SINCE WE HAVEN’T CLEARED OUR THANKSGIVING COLD
FRONT YET.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....LIW
DATA ACQUISITION.....MC
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