713
FXUS62 KKEY 281027 AAA
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
527 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS HAVE SETTLED IN COURTESY
OF A NIGHTTIME COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
-AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND DRIER AIR
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 520 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
THIS MORNING IS LOOKING A LOT DIFFERENT THAN 24 HOURS AGO!
GOES-19 IR IMAGERY SHOWS A BELT OF HIGH CLOUDS STRETCHING FROM THE
YUCATAN IN MEXICO, ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND CUBA, AND REACHING
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT MARCHED DOWN THE PENINSULA YESTERDAY.
SINCE THESE ARE HIGHER LEVELS CLOUDS, CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
SKIES WILL LOOK MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING, BUT SOME SUN MAY
FILTER THROUGH THINNER PATCHES OF THIS CLOUD COVER. TYPICALLY
AFTER A COLD FRONT PASSES, A STRATOCU DECK WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF ANY GIVEN AREA. WE CAN’T SEE ANY LOWER
CLOUD ON SATELLITE DUE TO THE HIGH CLOUD COVER BLOCKING THE VIEW,
BUT IT’S REASONABLE TO GUESS THERE MAY BE SOME LOWER LEVEL CUMULUS
CLOUDS SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. OUR KBYX RADAR IS
DETECTING SOME SHOWERS IN THE FARTHEST PORTION OF THE FLORIDA
STRAITS, BUT DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP ANY ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. WE HAVE ALSO NOTICED
THE PALM FRONDS WAVING TO US FROM OUTSIDE WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS
HAVE BEEN 15 TO 20 MPH COUPLED WITH FREQUENT GUSTS ANYWHERE FROM
NEAR 20 MPH TO NEAR 25 MPH. OVER THE WATER, MARINE PLATFORMS ARE
REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS MOSTLY NEAR 20 KNOTS (23 MPH) AND GUSTS
NEAR 25 KNOTS (29 MPH). AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS
THE AREA, WE SHOULD SEE BREEZES OF THIS MAGNITUDE CONTINUE. FOR
CONTEXT, CLIMATE REANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THE AIR MASS ACCOMPANIED
BY THIS COLD FRONT ISN’T THAT UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, BUT
THE RECENT UPTICK IN DEW POINTS MAKE IT FEEL LIKE THIS DRY AIR IS
SIGNIFICANT. EVEN THOUGH THE COOLDOWN IS NOTICEABLE, THE 1000MB
TEMPERATURE ANOMALY IS ONLY 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW THE
NORMAL.
THE OVERALL PATTERN HAS BEEN PROGRESSIVE, BUT NOW THE THE FRONT
IS AT A LOWER LATITUDE WE WILL SEE IT LINGER MOMENTARILY BEFORE
IT DECAYS. A SURFACE HIGH TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
EASTERN U.S. WILL CLOCK BREEZES TO THE NORTHEAST, AND BRING
ANOTHER PUSH OF ELEVATED WINDS. EVEN THOUGH THE MAGNITUDE IS VERY
CLOSE TO WHAT WE ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING, THE SPEED CONVERGENCE
WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY,
PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN LIGHTNING IS LOW, SO
OPTING TO KEEP THUNDER OUT FOR NOW, BUT THIS CAN BE REEVALUATED
FOR ANY OF THE PACKAGE UPDATES LATER TODAY. AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT GRADUALLY SLACKENS, BREEZES WILL FOLLOW SUIT, AND WEATHER
WILL FEEL CALMER FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.
GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS ALREADY HINTING AT ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUT IT’S TOO FAR OUT TO CONFIDENTLY HONE
IN ON THE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER. SINCE THE PATTERN HAS BEEN
SO PROGRESSIVE, IT ISN’T OUT OF THE ORDINARY TO SEE ONE FRONT SO
SOON AFTER ANOTHER.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 520 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL FLORIDA KEYS WATERS.
FROM SYNOPSIS, A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN FRESH
TO STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES, AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY EXTEND THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE FRONT
DECAYS, BREEZES WILL SLACKEN OVER THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY BE ON THE HORIZON FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK, REFLECTED IN THE BREEZES TURNING AROUND THE CLOCK AHEAD OF
IT. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL WAX AND WANE THROUGHOUT THE MARINE
FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
NORTH TO NORTHEAST BETWEEN 11 TO 18 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 22
TO 28 KNOTS, BECOMING NORTHEAST THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
CLIMATE
IN 1903, THE DAILY RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 61F WAS RECORDED.
THIS IS ALSO TIED FOR THE COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN
NOVEMBER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 72 67 78 71 / 0 0 30 40
MARATHON 72 69 76 73 / 10 0 30 40
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR GMZ031>035-
042>044-052>055-072>075.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MJV
DATA ACQUISITION.....MJV
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