338
FGUS63 KKRF 241733
ESGURP
LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO
1027 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 03/01/2026 - 05/30/2026
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:S FK REPUBLICAN R AT BENKELMAN NE
BEKN1 9.0 11.0 13.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:ARIKAREE R AT HAIGLER NE
HAIN1 12.0 14.0 16.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:REPUBLICAN R AT BENKELMAN NE 1SW
BENN1 7.0 9.0 11.0 8 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
:REPUBLICAN R AT STRATTON NE
STTN1 11.0 13.0 15.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:FRENCHMAN CR AT PALISADE NE
PALN1 7.0 8.0 9.0 8 9 <5 <5 <5 <5
:STINKING WATER CR AT PALISADE NE 2NW
PASN1 10.0 11.0 12.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:FRENCHMAN CR AT CULBERTSON NE
CULN1 8.0 10.0 12.0 <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:DRIFTWOOD CR AT MCCOOK NE 4SW
MCKN1 17.0 19.0 21.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:REPUBLICAN R AT MCCOOK NE 1SE
MKRN1 9.0 11.0 13.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:REPUBLICAN RIVER AT CAMBRIDGE NE
CBGN1 11.0 13.0 16.0 <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:REPUBLICAN R AT ORLEANS NE 2W
ORNN1 9.0 11.0 13.0 11 20 5 15 <5 9
:BEAVER CR AT LUDELL KS
LDLK1 9.0 11.0 13.0 26 27 7 7 <5 <5
:BEAVER CR AT CEDAR BLUFFS KS
CDBK1 16.0 18.0 20.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:BEAVER CR AT BEAVER CITY NE 4WSW
BEVN1 11.0 13.0 15.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:SAPPA CR AT OBERLIN KS 1SW
OBNK1 11.0 14.0 17.0 20 22 <5 <5 <5 <5
:SAPPA CR AT NORCATUR KS 15NE
NCRK1 17.0 20.0 22.0 5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:SAPPA CR AT BEAVER CITY NE 7SW
BVSN1 16.0 18.0 20.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:SAPPA CR AT STAMFORD NE 4E
STMN1 19.0 22.0 26.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:PRAIRIE DOG CR AT WOODRUFF KS 3WSW
WDRK1 19.0 24.0 30.0 <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME
PERIOD.
:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B KRF 20260301 Z DH12 /DC2602241027/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
: CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD = 03/01/2026 - 05/30/2026
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:S FK REPUBLICAN R
BEKN1 1.9/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.2/ 3.3/ 5.2/ 5.3
:ARIKAREE R
HAIN1 7.2/ 7.2/ 7.2/ 7.4/ 8.6/ 10.1/ 10.4
:REPUBLICAN R
BENN1 4.9/ 4.9/ 4.9/ 4.9/ 5.7/ 6.8/ 7.3
STTN1 6.3/ 6.3/ 6.3/ 6.6/ 8.2/ 9.7/ 10.4
:FRENCHMAN CR
PALN1 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.8/ 5.0/ 6.8/ 7.5
:STINKING WATER CR
PASN1 2.9/ 2.9/ 3.0/ 3.4/ 4.0/ 6.0/ 6.6
:FRENCHMAN CR
CULN1 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.7/ 4.1/ 5.5/ 6.5
:DRIFTWOOD CR
MCKN1 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 6.1/ 9.8/ 14.1/ 14.8
:REPUBLICAN R
MKRN1 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.6/ 5.0/ 6.4/ 7.8/ 8.0
:REPUBLICAN RIVER
CBGN1 4.5/ 4.5/ 4.5/ 5.6/ 7.1/ 9.1/ 10.3
:REPUBLICAN R
ORNN1 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.8/ 3.0/ 6.3/ 9.3/ 11.2
:BEAVER CR
LDLK1 2.5/ 3.0/ 3.5/ 5.0/ 9.2/ 10.3/ 11.0
CDBK1 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.8/ 8.7/ 10.4/ 11.6
BEVN1 2.1/ 2.4/ 3.0/ 3.6/ 6.2/ 8.3/ 9.7
:SAPPA CR
OBNK1 2.2/ 2.3/ 2.6/ 3.3/ 9.7/ 12.7/ 13.7
NCRK1 5.6/ 5.6/ 5.7/ 6.0/ 13.0/ 16.2/ 17.0
BVSN1 2.9/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.3/ 9.0/ 11.0/ 12.5
STMN1 6.5/ 6.6/ 6.7/ 7.2/ 10.8/ 13.4/ 14.0
:PRAIRIE DOG CR
WDRK1 1.4/ 1.4/ 4.2/ 6.7/ 10.0/ 13.6/ 17.2
.END
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B KRF 20260301 Z DH12 /DC2602241027/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
: CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD = 03/01/2026 - 05/30/2026
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:S FK REPUBLICAN R
BEKN1 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5
:ARIKAREE R
HAIN1 6.4/ 6.4/ 6.4/ 6.4/ 6.4/ 6.4/ 6.4
:REPUBLICAN R
BENN1 4.0/ 3.8/ 3.7/ 3.6/ 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5
STTN1 5.7/ 5.4/ 5.1/ 4.9/ 4.8/ 4.7/ 4.7
:FRENCHMAN CR
PALN1 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.0/ 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.9
:STINKING WATER CR
PASN1 2.8/ 2.7/ 2.7/ 2.6/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5
:FRENCHMAN CR
CULN1 2.2/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1
:DRIFTWOOD CR
MCKN1 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0
:REPUBLICAN R
MKRN1 2.8/ 2.7/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5
:REPUBLICAN RIVER
CBGN1 4.1/ 4.0/ 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.6
:REPUBLICAN R
ORNN1 0.7/ 0.7/ 0.5/ 0.4/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3
:BEAVER CR
LDLK1 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0
CDBK1 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3
BEVN1 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5
:SAPPA CR
OBNK1 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0
NCRK1 5.5/ 5.4/ 5.4/ 5.3/ 5.3/ 5.3/ 5.3
BVSN1 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.9
STMN1 6.5/ 6.4/ 6.4/ 6.3/ 6.3/ 6.3/ 6.3
:PRAIRIE DOG CR
WDRK1 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.4
:LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED NEAR THE END OF
:THE MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.
.END
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