083
FGUS63 KKRF 241736
ESGUMO
LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO
945 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 03/01/2026 - 09/30/2026
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:BIG HOLE R AT MELROSE MT
MLRM8 6.0 7.5 8.0 5 20 <5 <5 <5 <5
:BEAVERHEAD R AT TWIN BRIDGES MT
TWNM8 7.0 8.0 9.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:JEFFERSON R AT TWIN BRIDGES MT 5N
TWIM8 10.0 11.0 12.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:JEFFERSON R AT THREE FORKS MT 3NW
TFKM8 8.0 8.5 9.0 <5 17 <5 9 <5 <5
:GALLATIN R AT GALLATIN GTWY MT 7S
GLGM8 6.0 7.0 7.5 6 14 <5 <5 <5 <5
:GALLATIN R AT LOGAN MT 1W
LOGM8 9.0 10.0 11.0 25 40 <5 14 <5 <5
:MISSOURI R AT TOSTON MT
TOSM8 10.5 11.0 12.0 <5 15 <5 14 <5 <5
:DEARBORN R AT CRAIG MT 11NW
DBRM8 6.5 8.0 11.0 18 21 7 6 <5 <5
:SMITH R AT ULM MT 8SE
ULLM8 9.0 12.0 15.0 <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
:MISSOURI R AT ULM MT 6E
ULMM8 13.5 15.0 17.0 <5 11 <5 9 <5 7
:SUN R AT SIMMS MT 1N
SSRM8 7.5 8.5 10.5 10 14 8 10 5 6
:MUDDY CR AT VAUGHN MT
MDYM8 12.0 16.0 25.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:SUN R AT VAUGHN MT 3SE
VAUM8 6.0 8.0 9.0 9 12 7 6 <5 5
:MISSOURI R AT FT BENTON MT
FBNM8 13.5 15.0 17.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:TETON R AT DUTTON MT 10NE
DTTM8 9.0 0.0 0.0 <5 5 NA NA NA NA
:MARIAS R AT SHELBY 6S
SHLM8 9.0 13.0 15.0 20 30 <5 5 <5 <5
:MISSOURI R AT LANDUSKY MT 20S
LDKM8 27.0 29.0 33.0 <5 11 <5 10 <5 <5
:MUSSELSHELL R AT HARLOWTON MT 1SW
HLWM8 7.0 0.0 0.0 <5 12 NA NA NA NA
:MUSSELSHELL R AT SHAWMUT MT
SHAM8 8.0 0.0 0.0 <5 12 NA NA NA NA
:MUSSELSHELL R AT LAVINA MT 1S
LVNM8 9.5 0.0 0.0 <5 12 NA NA NA NA
:MUSSELSHELL R AT ROUNDUP MT 2SW
RUPM8 10.0 10.5 11.0 <5 12 <5 11 <5 11
:MUSSELSHELL R AT MUSSELSHELL MT
MUSM8 11.0 11.5 12.0 <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
:MUSSELSHELL R AT MOSBY MT
MSBM8 10.0 12.0 14.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME
PERIOD.
:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B KRF 20260301 Z DH12 /DC2602240945/DVM06/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
: CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD = 03/01/2026 - 09/30/2026
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:BIG HOLE R
MLRM8 3.4/ 3.5/ 3.8/ 4.2/ 4.7/ 5.6/ 6.0
:BEAVERHEAD R
TWNM8 4.0/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.2/ 4.5/ 5.0/ 5.7
:JEFFERSON R
TWIM8 5.1/ 5.3/ 5.7/ 6.2/ 6.7/ 7.7/ 8.1
TFKM8 4.6/ 5.0/ 5.1/ 5.7/ 6.4/ 7.3/ 7.8
:GALLATIN R
GLGM8 4.0/ 4.2/ 4.5/ 4.8/ 5.2/ 5.7/ 6.1
LOGM8 7.3/ 7.5/ 7.9/ 8.4/ 9.0/ 9.5/ 9.9
:MISSOURI R
TOSM8 6.3/ 6.6/ 6.9/ 7.7/ 8.2/ 9.4/ 10.2
:DEARBORN R
DBRM8 4.2/ 4.6/ 4.9/ 5.3/ 6.2/ 7.0/ 8.6
:SMITH R
ULLM8 2.9/ 3.1/ 3.6/ 4.1/ 4.4/ 5.1/ 5.6
:MISSOURI R
ULMM8 3.5/ 3.8/ 4.0/ 4.4/ 5.8/ 8.6/ 10.0
:SUN R
SSRM8 3.8/ 4.0/ 4.1/ 5.1/ 6.8/ 7.4/ 10.6
:MUDDY CR
MDYM8 6.4/ 6.6/ 6.7/ 6.8/ 6.9/ 7.0/ 8.2
:SUN R
VAUM8 3.3/ 3.4/ 3.6/ 4.1/ 5.2/ 5.7/ 8.6
:MISSOURI R
FBNM8 2.4/ 2.6/ 2.7/ 3.3/ 4.1/ 5.5/ 6.6
:TETON R
DTTM8 3.6/ 3.7/ 3.9/ 4.3/ 5.7/ 7.0/ 7.7
:MARIAS R
SHLM8 5.1/ 5.2/ 6.0/ 6.5/ 8.5/ 9.8/ 11.5
:MISSOURI R
LDKM8 14.0/ 14.7/ 15.1/ 15.9/ 18.0/ 22.2/ 23.0
:MUSSELSHELL R
HLWM8 3.7/ 3.9/ 4.2/ 4.3/ 4.7/ 5.5/ 6.1
SHAM8 4.2/ 4.7/ 5.1/ 5.5/ 6.1/ 6.9/ 7.3
LVNM8 2.6/ 3.1/ 4.1/ 4.5/ 5.5/ 7.2/ 8.1
RUPM8 2.4/ 2.8/ 3.9/ 4.5/ 5.4/ 7.6/ 8.5
MUSM8 3.0/ 3.2/ 4.1/ 4.5/ 5.5/ 6.8/ 7.3
MSBM8 3.9/ 4.1/ 4.6/ 4.9/ 5.7/ 6.3/ 6.8
.END
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B KRF 20260301 Z DH12 /DC2602240945/DVM06/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
: CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD = 03/01/2026 - 09/30/2026
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:BIG HOLE R
MLRM8 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.3/ 1.2/ 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.1
:BEAVERHEAD R
TWNM8 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1
:JEFFERSON R
TWIM8 3.2/ 2.7/ 2.6/ 2.3/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2
TFKM8 3.0/ 2.4/ 2.3/ 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.9
:GALLATIN R
GLGM8 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.0
LOGM8 4.6/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.3/ 4.2/ 4.1/ 4.0
:MISSOURI R
TOSM8 3.7/ 3.1/ 3.0/ 2.7/ 2.6/ 2.5/ 2.1
:DEARBORN R
DBRM8 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0
:SMITH R
ULLM8 1.9/ 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.7/ 1.7/ 1.7
:MISSOURI R
ULMM8 3.0/ 3.0/ 2.9/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4
:SUN R
SSRM8 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4
:MUDDY CR
MDYM8 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3
:SUN R
VAUM8 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1
:MISSOURI R
FBNM8 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.8/ 1.7/ 1.7/ 1.7/ 1.7
:TETON R
DTTM8 1.6/ 1.6/ 1.6/ 1.6/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5
:MARIAS R
SHLM8 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.5/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.3/ 2.3
:MISSOURI R
LDKM8 13.1/ 13.0/ 12.9/ 12.5/ 12.3/ 12.2/ 12.1
:MUSSELSHELL R
HLWM8 2.7/ 2.7/ 2.7/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.5
SHAM8 2.0/ 2.0/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5
LVNM8 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.0/ 0.9/ 0.9
RUPM8 0.7/ 0.7/ 0.7/ 0.7/ 0.6/ 0.5/ 0.5
MUSM8 1.6/ 1.6/ 1.6/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.4/ 1.4
MSBM8 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.9
:LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED NEAR THE END OF
:THE MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.
.END
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