227
FGUS63 KKRF 241739
ESGUSH
LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO
1029 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 03/01/2026 - 05/30/2026
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:SMOKY HILL R AT OAKLEY KS 22S
OKYK1 9.0 11.0 13.0 <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
:HACKBERRY CR AT GOVE KS 4W
GOVK1 19.0 21.0 23.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:SMOKY HILL R AT ARNOLD KS 12N
ARNK1 7.0 9.0 11.0 7 13 <5 <5 <5 <5
:SMOKY HILL R AT SCHOENCHEN KS 2E
SCSK1 11.0 14.0 17.0 5 8 <5 6 <5 <5
:BIG CR AT ELLIS KS
ELLK1 15.0 17.0 19.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:BIG CR AT HAYS KS 2SSE
HYSK1 26.0 29.0 32.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:SMOKY HILL R AT RUSSELL KS 8S
RSLK1 18.0 20.0 38.0 <5 9 <5 5 <5 <5
:SMOKY HILL R AT ELLSWORTH KS
ELWK1 20.0 24.0 27.0 6 9 <5 6 <5 <5
:SALINE R AT WAKEENEY KS 5N
WAAK1 13.0 15.0 17.0 5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:SALINE R AT RUSSELL KS 5N
RUSK1 18.0 20.0 23.0 5 8 <5 <5 <5 <5
:LENORA AT LENORA KS
LNRK1 10.0 12.0 14.0 <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:N FK SOLOMON R AT GLADE KS 1S
GDEK1 11.0 16.0 18.0 6 15 <5 8 <5 <5
:BOW CR AT STOCKTON KS 9N
SKTK1 9.0 12.0 13.6 8 24 <5 7 <5 <5
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME
PERIOD.
:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B KRF 20260301 Z DH12 /DC2602241029/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
: CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD = 03/01/2026 - 05/30/2026
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:SMOKY HILL R
OKYK1 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.1/ 5.2/ 7.0/ 7.9/ 8.5
:HACKBERRY CR
GOVK1 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.3/ 9.1/ 10.0
:SMOKY HILL R
ARNK1 0.5/ 0.6/ 0.6/ 2.0/ 4.8/ 6.2/ 7.5
SCSK1 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.5/ 4.3/ 6.4/ 8.3/ 11.5
:BIG CR
ELLK1 9.4/ 9.4/ 9.4/ 9.4/ 10.1/ 11.7/ 12.6
HYSK1 4.6/ 4.6/ 4.6/ 4.8/ 8.0/ 12.6/ 15.0
:SMOKY HILL R
RSLK1 3.5/ 3.6/ 4.4/ 7.1/ 10.4/ 13.0/ 16.3
ELWK1 1.2/ 1.4/ 3.2/ 5.8/ 9.7/ 17.0/ 22.1
:SALINE R
WAAK1 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.7/ 2.8/ 6.0/ 10.0/ 12.4
RUSK1 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.6/ 6.5/ 8.9/ 11.5/ 18.1
:LENORA
LNRK1 1.3/ 1.3/ 1.4/ 1.7/ 5.1/ 6.0/ 6.8
:N FK SOLOMON R
GDEK1 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 5.0/ 7.5/ 9.3/ 13.0
:BOW CR
SKTK1 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.3/ 5.0/ 7.1/ 8.3/ 11.1
.END
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B KRF 20260301 Z DH12 /DC2602241029/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
: CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD = 03/01/2026 - 05/30/2026
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:SMOKY HILL R
OKYK1 3.9/ 3.9/ 3.9/ 3.9/ 3.9/ 3.9/ 3.9
:HACKBERRY CR
GOVK1 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1
:SMOKY HILL R
ARNK1 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2
SCSK1 2.3/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2
:BIG CR
ELLK1 9.4/ 9.4/ 9.4/ 9.4/ 9.4/ 9.4/ 9.4
HYSK1 4.3/ 4.1/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0
:SMOKY HILL R
RSLK1 3.4/ 3.3/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0
ELWK1 1.2/ 1.2/ 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.0/ 1.0
:SALINE R
WAAK1 2.1/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0
RUSK1 4.1/ 4.0/ 3.4/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2
:LENORA
LNRK1 0.5/ 0.4/ 0.1/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
:N FK SOLOMON R
GDEK1 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
:BOW CR
SKTK1 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 3.9/ 3.9
:LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED NEAR THE END OF
:THE MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.
.END
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