866
FGUS63 KKRF 241852
ESGMOM
LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO
1118 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 03/01/2026 - 05/30/2026
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:MISSOURI R AT SOUTH SIOUX CITY NE
SSCN1 30.0 33.0 36.0 <5 9 <5 8 <5 6
:MISSOURI R AT DECATUR NE
DCTN1 35.0 38.0 41.0 <5 13 <5 8 <5 6
:MISSOURI R AT BLAIR NE 2E
BLAN1 26.5 28.5 33.0 5 23 <5 10 <5 5
:MISSOURI R AT OMAHA NE
OMHN1 27.0 32.0 40.0 10 40 <5 9 <5 <5
:MISSOURI R AT PLATTSMOUTH NE 1E
PTMN1 26.0 32.0 35.0 16 47 <5 11 <5 6
:MISSOURI R AT NEBRASKA CITY NE
NEBN1 18.0 23.0 27.0 26 60 <5 19 <5 <5
:MISSOURI R AT BROWNVILLE NE
BRON1 34.0 38.5 43.0 25 65 8 29 <5 12
:MISSOURI R AT RULO NE
RULN1 17.0 21.0 26.0 30 66 12 46 <5 8
:MISSOURI R AT ST JOSEPH MO
SJSM7 17.0 21.0 27.0 30 71 16 42 8 11
:MISSOURI R AT ATCHISON KS NO.1
ATCK1 22.0 27.0 30.0 23 62 10 23 8 16
:MISSOURI R AT LEAVENWORTH KS
LEVK1 20.0 24.0 30.0 18 51 9 19 <5 9
:MISSOURI R AT PARKVILLE MO 5W
PKVM7 25.0 28.0 35.0 11 36 8 18 <5 8
:MISSOURI R AT KANSAS CITY MO
KCDM7 32.0 35.0 49.0 8 14 6 12 <5 <5
:MISSOURI R AT NAPOLEON MO
NAPM7 17.0 25.0 30.0 46 80 10 23 5 10
:MISSOURI R AT WAVERLY MO
WVYM7 20.0 29.0 31.0 48 80 10 18 5 12
:MISSOURI R AT MIAMI MO
MIAM7 18.0 28.0 29.0 53 82 10 19 6 14
:MISSOURI R AT GLASGOW MO
GLZM7 25.0 27.0 32.0 43 77 25 75 11 23
:MISSOURI R AT BOONVILLE MO
BOZM7 21.0 30.0 34.0 41 79 10 15 <5 8
:MISSOURI R AT JEFFERSON CITY MO
JFFM7 23.0 25.0 30.0 18 71 13 46 11 18
:OSAGE R AT ST THOMAS MO
STTM7 23.0 30.0 35.0 <5 17 <5 <5 <5 <5
:OSAGE R AT MARI-OSA CAMPGND MO
MOAM7 19.0 22.0 25.0 26 60 12 27 9 19
:MISSOURI R AT CHAMOIS MO 1NE
CMSM7 17.0 28.0 31.0 37 83 9 14 <5 10
:MISSOURI R AT HERMANN MO
HRNM7 21.0 26.0 33.0 33 82 16 39 10 17
:MISSOURI R AT WASHINGTON MO
WHGM7 20.0 28.0 31.0 29 73 11 18 <5 16
:MISSOURI R AT ST CHARLES MO 1E
SCLM7 25.0 30.0 36.0 29 73 15 19 <5 14
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME
PERIOD.
:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B KRF 20260301 Z DH12 /DC2602241118/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
: CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD = 03/01/2026 - 05/30/2026
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:MISSOURI R
SSCN1 11.2/ 11.2/ 11.5/ 12.0/ 13.4/ 20.8/ 24.6
DCTN1 19.7/ 19.8/ 20.1/ 20.7/ 22.2/ 29.0/ 31.4
BLAN1 13.1/ 13.4/ 13.7/ 14.5/ 16.6/ 24.0/ 26.0
OMHN1 15.1/ 15.5/ 16.2/ 18.1/ 20.6/ 27.1/ 30.0
PTMN1 15.5/ 15.7/ 17.6/ 19.7/ 24.7/ 27.6/ 30.5
NEBN1 9.4/ 9.8/ 11.7/ 13.7/ 18.2/ 20.0/ 22.6
BRON1 24.9/ 25.2/ 27.0/ 30.5/ 34.0/ 36.6/ 41.5
RULN1 8.1/ 8.6/ 10.2/ 14.2/ 17.6/ 21.8/ 24.8
SJSM7 7.2/ 8.2/ 11.0/ 14.4/ 17.9/ 22.9/ 29.3
ATCK1 9.5/ 10.8/ 14.8/ 18.3/ 21.6/ 26.6/ 31.6
LEVK1 4.3/ 5.3/ 8.9/ 13.0/ 17.7/ 23.2/ 29.7
PKVM7 10.1/ 11.0/ 14.4/ 17.4/ 20.4/ 25.7/ 32.2
KCDM7 11.5/ 14.4/ 16.1/ 18.8/ 23.9/ 29.6/ 37.3
NAPM7 8.6/ 11.5/ 13.5/ 15.7/ 19.7/ 25.0/ 29.8
WVYM7 12.5/ 15.1/ 17.0/ 19.9/ 22.5/ 28.9/ 30.8
MIAM7 9.5/ 11.8/ 15.1/ 19.1/ 21.8/ 28.2/ 29.6
GLZM7 13.9/ 16.4/ 19.4/ 23.6/ 27.0/ 33.2/ 37.3
BOZM7 9.5/ 12.3/ 15.1/ 19.2/ 24.4/ 30.7/ 32.6
JFFM7 8.3/ 11.3/ 14.9/ 17.6/ 22.4/ 32.2/ 34.9
:OSAGE R
STTM7 3.7/ 4.3/ 7.8/ 11.9/ 13.1/ 20.3/ 22.2
MOAM7 4.2/ 8.7/ 11.2/ 13.9/ 19.0/ 24.3/ 29.0
:MISSOURI R
CMSM7 5.5/ 8.5/ 11.8/ 14.4/ 20.6/ 27.3/ 29.3
HRNM7 7.8/ 10.5/ 13.8/ 17.7/ 23.8/ 33.2/ 34.0
WHGM7 6.0/ 8.2/ 11.1/ 15.0/ 20.6/ 28.4/ 30.0
SCLM7 13.8/ 15.3/ 18.1/ 21.4/ 25.7/ 33.3/ 34.7
.END
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B KRF 20260301 Z DH12 /DC2602241118/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
: CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD = 03/01/2026 - 05/30/2026
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:MISSOURI R
SSCN1 6.0/ 5.9/ 5.9/ 5.8/ 5.8/ 5.8/ 5.8
DCTN1 14.8/ 14.8/ 14.8/ 14.8/ 14.7/ 14.7/ 14.7
BLAN1 8.2/ 8.1/ 8.1/ 8.1/ 8.0/ 8.0/ 8.0
OMHN1 8.6/ 8.6/ 8.5/ 8.4/ 8.4/ 8.4/ 8.4
PTMN1 10.6/ 10.6/ 10.4/ 10.4/ 10.3/ 10.3/ 10.3
NEBN1 5.1/ 5.1/ 5.0/ 4.9/ 4.9/ 4.9/ 4.9
BRON1 20.3/ 20.3/ 20.3/ 20.2/ 20.1/ 20.1/ 20.1
RULN1 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.4/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.1
SJSM7 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.2/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.0/ 2.0
ATCK1 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 3.8/ 3.8/ 3.7/ 3.7
LEVK1 -0.6/ -0.6/ -0.6/ -0.7/ -0.7/ -0.7/ -0.7
PKVM7 4.7/ 4.7/ 4.7/ 4.7/ 4.7/ 4.7/ 4.6
KCDM7 5.0/ 5.0/ 5.0/ 5.0/ 5.0/ 5.0/ 4.9
NAPM7 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.1
WVYM7 6.5/ 6.5/ 6.5/ 6.5/ 6.4/ 6.4/ 6.4
MIAM7 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.5
GLZM7 6.4/ 6.3/ 6.3/ 6.3/ 6.3/ 6.2/ 6.2
BOZM7 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.4
JFFM7 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.2
:OSAGE R
STTM7 2.8/ 2.5/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 1.8
:MISSOURI R
CMSM7 -2.2/ -2.3/ -2.5/ -2.5/ -2.9/ -2.9/ -2.9
HRNM7 0.5/ 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.1/ -0.2/ -0.3/ -0.4
WHGM7 -1.1/ -1.3/ -1.4/ -1.6/ -1.8/ -1.9/ -2.0
SCLM7 5.5/ 5.2/ 5.0/ 4.8/ 4.6/ 4.4/ 4.4
:LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED NEAR THE END OF
:THE MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.
.END
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