058
FGUS63 KKRF 242040
ESPBBL
LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO
119 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
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**** THESE 90 DAY FORECASTS ARE PRODUCED WITH HEFS ****
**** AND COMPARE TO TRADITIONAL ESP AND HISTORICAL ****
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IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT ESP, HEFS, AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR
NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR
FLOODSTAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
HEFS VALUES INDICATE THE HEFS PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD
CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
ESP VALUES INDICATE THE ESP PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD
CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF ESP OR HEFS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF ESP
OR HEFS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL
IS LOWER THAN NORMAL.
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 03/01/2026 - 05/30/2026
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR | HEFS ESP HS |HEFS ESP HS |HEFS ESP HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:BIG BLUE R AT SURPRISE NE NO.2
SRPN1 7.0 10.0 12.0 | 9 <5 17 | 6 <5 7 | <5 <5 <5
:LINCOLN CR AT SEWARD NE 3WNW
SWDN1 15.0 17.0 20.0 | 40 17 58 | 28 7 39 | 7 <5 6
:BIG BLUE R AT SEWARD NE
SWRN1 18.0 22.0 27.0 | 14 <5 17 | <5 <5 6 | <5 <5 <5
:W FK BIG BLUE R AT DORCHESTER NE 6NW
DRGN1 15.0 22.0 24.4 | 43 22 51 | 5 <5 7 | <5 <5 5
:BIG BLUE R AT CRETE NE 2S
CRTN1 21.0 25.0 31.0 | 41 30 56 | 14 5 21 | <5 <5 6
:TURKEY CR AT WILBER NE 3W
WLBN1 12.5 16.0 21.0 | 36 28 44 | <5 <5 11 | <5 <5 <5
:TURKEY CR AT DEWITT NE 2SE
DEWN1 23.5 25.0 27.0 | 20 15 34 | 6 6 18 | 5 5 6
:BIG BLUE R AT BEATRICE NE
BEAN1 18.0 26.0 32.0 | 31 19 40 | 7 <5 9 | <5 <5 <5
:BIG BLUE R AT BARNESTON NE
BARN1 20.0 27.0 33.0 | 22 17 41 | <5 <5 10 | <5 <5 <5
:BIG BLUE R AT MARYSVILLE KS
MRYK1 35.0 38.2 43.0 | <5 <5 8 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:LITTLE BLUE R AT DEWEESE NE 4SE
DWEN1 10.0 16.0 17.0 | 38 31 36 | <5 <5 7 | <5 <5 5
:LITTLE BLUE R AT FAIRBURY NE
FRBN1 18.5 20.0 23.0 | 8 8 19 | 6 6 11 | 5 5 6
:LITTLE BLUE R AT HOLLENBERG KS
HBGK1 19.0 19.4 45.0 | 6 5 6 | 5 5 6 | <5 <5 <5
:MILL CR AT WASHINGTON KS 1ESE
WSHK1 18.0 19.0 35.0 | 17 21 30 | 15 21 25 | <5 <5 <5
:LITTLE BLUE R AT BARNES KS 4NE
BANK1 16.0 23.0 39.0 | 23 27 34 | 6 6 8 | <5 <5 <5
:BIG BLUE R AT BLUE RAPIDS KS
BLRK1 26.0 52.0 68.0 | 51 47 62 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:BLACK VERMILLION R AT FRANKFORT KS
FKFK1 19.0 27.5 40.5 | 45 37 49 | 6 <5 5 | <5 <5 <5
LEGEND
HEFS = HYDROLOGIC ENSEMBLE FORECAST SERVICE SIMULATION (CURRENT)
ESP = CONDITIONAL ESP SIMULATION (CURRENT)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE HEFS
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME
PERIOD.
:...TABLE 2--HEFS EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B KRF 0301 Z DH12 /DC2602241919/DVD90/HGVFPXT/HGVFPX9/HGVFPXH
.B1 /HGVFPX5/HGVFPXG/HGVFPX1/HGVFPXF
: CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD = 03/01/2026 - 05/30/2026
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:BIG BLUE R
SRPN1 1.6/ 2.0/ 2.2/ 2.7/ 3.7/ 6.6/ 10.4/
:LINCOLN CR
SWDN1 4.6/ 5.3/ 6.3/ 12.2/ 17.6/ 19.7/ 20.1/
:BIG BLUE R
SWRN1 1.8/ 2.3/ 3.3/ 7.4/ 15.1/ 20.2/ 21.6/
:W FK BIG BLUE R
DRGN1 2.6/ 4.3/ 5.0/ 12.6/ 18.7/ 20.3/ 22.0/
:BIG BLUE R
CRTN1 8.7/ 10.3/ 12.2/ 19.4/ 23.9/ 25.8/ 27.4/
:TURKEY CR
WLBN1 2.1/ 2.4/ 5.9/ 8.8/ 14.0/ 15.7/ 15.8/
DEWN1 10.0/ 11.2/ 13.6/ 17.4/ 23.0/ 24.4/ 27.2/
:BIG BLUE R
BEAN1 3.3/ 4.5/ 7.4/ 11.0/ 19.7/ 23.0/ 27.1/
BARN1 4.2/ 6.3/ 9.5/ 13.0/ 19.0/ 21.7/ 26.4/
MRYK1 15.4/ 18.2/ 19.9/ 23.7/ 27.9/ 30.6/ 32.9/
:LITTLE BLUE R
DWEN1 2.2/ 2.3/ 5.5/ 7.6/ 11.4/ 13.9/ 14.8/
FRBN1 7.1/ 8.8/ 9.6/ 12.9/ 14.6/ 17.8/ 23.3/
HBGK1 2.7/ 3.9/ 5.8/ 9.5/ 11.4/ 13.4/ 20.9/
:MILL CR
WSHK1 1.6/ 2.2/ 6.2/ 10.5/ 16.6/ 20.4/ 20.7/
:LITTLE BLUE R
BANK1 5.1/ 6.1/ 8.5/ 11.7/ 14.7/ 17.7/ 25.9/
:BIG BLUE R
BLRK1 17.5/ 20.2/ 22.1/ 26.5/ 30.7/ 34.2/ 42.8/
:BLACK VERMILLION R
FKFK1 5.5/ 8.3/ 10.0/ 17.6/ 23.1/ 27.1/ 27.9/
.END
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE HEFS
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 3--HEFS NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B KRF 0301 Z DH12 /DC2602241919/DVD90/HGVFPNT/HGVFPN9/HGVFPNH
.B1 /HGVFPN5/HGVFPNG/HGVFPN1/HGVFPNF
: CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD = 03/01/2026 - 05/30/2026
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:BIG BLUE R
SRPN1 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.3/ 1.3/ 1.3/ 1.2/ 1.2/
:LINCOLN CR
SWDN1 4.5/ 4.5/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.3/ 4.2/
:BIG BLUE R
SWRN1 1.7/ 1.6/ 1.6/ 1.6/ 1.6/ 1.5/ 1.5/
:W FK BIG BLUE R
DRGN1 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.4/ 2.3/
:BIG BLUE R
CRTN1 8.0/ 8.0/ 7.9/ 7.9/ 7.8/ 7.7/ 7.6/
:TURKEY CR
WLBN1 1.9/ 1.8/ 1.6/ 1.3/ 1.1/ 0.7/ 0.5/
DEWN1 9.9/ 9.9/ 9.8/ 9.7/ 9.7/ 9.5/ 9.5/
:BIG BLUE R
BEAN1 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.0/ 2.9/ 2.8/
BARN1 3.5/ 3.4/ 3.4/ 3.4/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3/
MRYK1 12.8/ 12.8/ 12.8/ 12.8/ 12.7/ 12.6/ 12.5/
:LITTLE BLUE R
DWEN1 2.2/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.0/ 1.8/ 1.7/
FRBN1 6.7/ 6.6/ 6.6/ 6.5/ 6.3/ 6.2/ 6.1/
HBGK1 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.4/ 1.3/ 1.2/ 1.1/
:MILL CR
WSHK1 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.3/ 1.2/ 1.1/
:LITTLE BLUE R
BANK1 4.0/ 4.0/ 3.9/ 3.8/ 3.6/ 3.4/ 3.3/
:BIG BLUE R
BLRK1 14.7/ 14.7/ 14.6/ 14.5/ 14.3/ 14.2/ 14.0/
:BLACK VERMILLION R
FKFK1 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.7/ 2.5/ 2.1/ 1.8/ 1.2/
.END
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