456
FGUS63 KKRF 261732
ESGMDT
LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO
1103 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 05/31/2026 - 08/29/2026
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:CANNONBALL R AT REGENT ND
REGN8 22.0 24.0 26.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:CEDAR CR AT RALEIGH ND 19S
RLGN8 12.0 14.0 16.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:CANNONBALL R AT BREIEN ND
BREN8 10.0 20.0 23.0 6 38 <5 <5 <5 <5
:BEAVER CR AT LINTON ND 1W
BVRN8 12.0 14.0 16.0 7 28 5 13 <5 11
:GRAND R AT LITTLE EAGLE SD 1S
LIES2 15.0 17.0 21.0 <5 6 <5 5 <5 <5
:MOREAU R AT FAITH SD 14NW
FTHS2 16.0 18.0 21.0 <5 6 <5 5 <5 <5
:MOREAU R AT WHITEHORSE SD 2SE
WHIS2 21.0 23.0 25.0 <5 9 <5 6 <5 <5
:BELLE FOURCHE R AT WY-SD STATE LINE UMRB
BWSW4 15.0 16.0 18.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:BELLE FOURCHE R AT STURGIS SD 20NE
SBFS2 15.0 17.0 19.0 7 14 <5 12 <5 8
:BELLE FOURCHE R AT ELM SPRINGS SD
EMSS2 19.0 22.0 24.0 <5 9 <5 <5 <5 <5
:CHEYENNE R AT WASTA SD 3E
WASS2 13.0 15.0 16.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:CHEYENNE R AT PLAINVIEW SD
PLNS2 17.0 19.0 20.0 7 26 <5 18 <5 12
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME
PERIOD.
:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B KRF 20260531 Z DH12 /DC2605261103/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
: CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD = 05/31/2026 - 08/29/2026
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:CANNONBALL R
REGN8 5.2/ 5.2/ 5.3/ 6.2/ 6.8/ 8.3/ 9.1
:CEDAR CR
RLGN8 0.7/ 0.9/ 2.4/ 3.6/ 4.7/ 5.7/ 7.1
:CANNONBALL R
BREN8 2.7/ 2.8/ 4.5/ 6.3/ 7.3/ 9.3/ 11.0
:BEAVER CR
BVRN8 4.7/ 4.8/ 4.9/ 5.5/ 6.6/ 9.3/ 14.6
:GRAND R
LIES2 3.0/ 3.0/ 4.0/ 5.2/ 6.6/ 8.1/ 11.4
:MOREAU R
FTHS2 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.3/ 3.5/ 6.4/ 8.9/ 10.6
WHIS2 2.7/ 2.8/ 3.8/ 5.3/ 7.2/ 10.5/ 13.1
:BELLE FOURCHE R
BWSW4 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 5.3/ 6.8
SBFS2 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 5.3/ 10.4/ 15.4
EMSS2 4.6/ 4.6/ 4.7/ 4.8/ 6.7/ 11.7/ 15.9
:CHEYENNE R
WASS2 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.5/ 0.7/ 2.1/ 2.8/ 3.8
PLNS2 8.4/ 8.4/ 8.4/ 8.6/ 10.2/ 14.6/ 17.9
.END
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B KRF 20260531 Z DH12 /DC2605261103/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
: CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD = 05/31/2026 - 08/29/2026
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:CANNONBALL R
REGN8 4.8/ 4.8/ 4.8/ 4.8/ 4.8/ 4.7/ 4.7
:CEDAR CR
RLGN8 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4
:CANNONBALL R
BREN8 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4
:BEAVER CR
BVRN8 4.5/ 4.5/ 4.5/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.4
:GRAND R
LIES2 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5
:MOREAU R
FTHS2 0.7/ 0.7/ 0.7/ 0.7/ 0.7/ 0.7/ 0.7
WHIS2 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.2
:BELLE FOURCHE R
BWSW4 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1
SBFS2 3.1/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 2.8/ 2.6/ 2.5/ 2.4
EMSS2 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.2/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 3.9
:CHEYENNE R
WASS2 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2
PLNS2 8.3/ 8.3/ 8.3/ 8.2/ 8.2/ 8.2/ 8.1
:LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED NEAR THE END OF
:THE MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.
.END
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