256
FGUS63 KKRF 261817
ESGGRA
LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO
1218 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 05/31/2026 - 08/29/2026
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:THOMPSON R AT DAVIS CITY IA
DVSI4 12.0 20.0 24.0 19 20 5 6 <5 <5
:THOMPSON R AT TRENTON MO 1W
TTZM7 27.0 31.0 34.0 32 32 9 13 <5 6
:GRAND R AT PATTONSBURG MO 2S
PATM7 25.0 30.0 32.0 40 55 27 36 22 29
:GRAND R AT GALLATIN MO
GAZM7 26.0 33.0 39.0 40 45 18 14 5 5
:GRAND R AT CHILLICOTHE MO 3S
CHZM7 24.0 28.0 35.0 44 60 35 47 19 28
:GRAND R AT SUMNER MO 2SW
SNZM7 26.0 28.0 40.0 65 71 58 70 5 9
:GRAND R AT BRUNSWICK MO 1W
BRNM7 19.0 27.0 33.0 42 61 6 21 5 9
:S FK CHARITON R AT PROMISE CITY IA 6NW
PRMI4 25.0 28.0 31.0 7 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
:CHARITON R AT CHARITON IA 5SSE
CHTI4 19.5 26.0 29.0 6 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
:CHARITON R AT MOULTON IA 5W
MOLI4 36.0 37.0 38.0 9 10 6 6 <5 <5
:CHARITON R AT NOVINGER MO
NVZM7 20.0 23.0 26.0 30 36 23 22 14 18
:CHARITON R AT PRAIRIE HILL MO 2NW
PRIM7 15.0 19.0 21.0 42 59 17 33 11 17
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME
PERIOD.
:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B KRF 20260531 Z DH12 /DC2605261218/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
: CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD = 05/31/2026 - 08/29/2026
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:THOMPSON R
DVSI4 1.6/ 1.6/ 3.1/ 4.4/ 9.8/ 15.9/ 20.0
TTZM7 11.5/ 12.0/ 15.7/ 21.7/ 28.1/ 30.7/ 33.0
:GRAND R
PATM7 3.8/ 3.8/ 6.0/ 18.5/ 30.7/ 35.8/ 44.1
GAZM7 5.4/ 5.5/ 8.8/ 19.3/ 30.3/ 36.1/ 39.4
CHZM7 6.7/ 8.0/ 10.7/ 23.3/ 29.7/ 37.7/ 39.3
SNZM7 11.6/ 13.2/ 15.2/ 31.3/ 36.3/ 37.8/ 40.3
BRNM7 6.4/ 7.3/ 10.9/ 17.8/ 22.5/ 25.8/ 32.2
:S FK CHARITON R
PRMI4 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.9/ 4.4/ 21.3/ 24.0/ 25.5
:CHARITON R
CHTI4 3.7/ 3.7/ 4.2/ 13.2/ 15.8/ 18.1/ 21.0
MOLI4 25.5/ 25.5/ 25.5/ 26.8/ 33.1/ 35.7/ 37.2
NVZM7 4.7/ 4.7/ 4.7/ 12.3/ 21.5/ 27.6/ 28.6
PRIM7 5.0/ 5.0/ 5.0/ 13.5/ 17.8/ 21.5/ 23.2
.END
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B KRF 20260531 Z DH12 /DC2605261218/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
: CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD = 05/31/2026 - 08/29/2026
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:THOMPSON R
DVSI4 1.1/ 1.0/ 0.8/ 0.7/ 0.7/ 0.7/ 0.7
TTZM7 10.0/ 9.6/ 9.4/ 8.6/ 8.5/ 8.5/ 8.5
:GRAND R
PATM7 3.6/ 3.3/ 2.9/ 2.6/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5
GAZM7 5.2/ 4.8/ 4.2/ 3.8/ 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.6
CHZM7 5.9/ 5.4/ 4.4/ 4.0/ 3.7/ 3.6/ 3.5
SNZM7 10.1/ 9.7/ 8.6/ 8.2/ 7.8/ 7.6/ 7.6
:S FK CHARITON R
PRMI4 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.6/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5
:CHARITON R
CHTI4 3.3/ 3.2/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5
MOLI4 18.4/ 18.2/ 18.2/ 18.2/ 18.1/ 18.1/ 18.1
NVZM7 0.5/ 0.0/ -0.5/ -0.7/ -0.7/ -0.7/ -0.7
PRIM7 2.1/ 1.4/ 1.2/ 1.1/ 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.0
:LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED NEAR THE END OF
:THE MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.
.END
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