704
FXUS63 KLBF 181733
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1233 PM CDT FRI OCT 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT.
- WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH MID 70S AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER 50S BEHIND THE FRONT.
- UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS THIS SYSTEM
CROSSES THE AREA.
- DRY WEATHER THEN RETURNS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL COOL
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THEN WARMER WEATHER RETURNS TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI OCT 18 2024
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO DIG ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
TODAY. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, A COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH WILL
SHARPEN FROM CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN COLORADO.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THE FRONT SHOULD BE LOCATED FROM NEAR O'NEILL
SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE NORTH PLATTE AREA. SOME WEAK SURFACE BASED CAPE
DOES DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS NEAR THE
BOUNDARY. SURFACE DEW POINTS APPEAR THEY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
40S TO NEAR 50F WITH AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S. AS UPPER LEVEL
FORCING ARRIVES ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON,
SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD FIRST DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND
THEN SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACTUALLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY, AND WHILE SHEAR PROFILES ARE STRONG, THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS LOW. THIS EVENING A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AS THIS NOSES
INTO THE COLD FRONT, SHOWERY CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE JUST NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS THE
JET AIDES IN FORCING. THE LOW-LEVEL JET QUICKLY VEERS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AND DECREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN CHANCES IN TURN
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WELL. HI-RES ENSEMBLE DATA PAINTS THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY (50-70%) OF RECEIVING A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR
MORE OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN SANDHILLS INTO PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
COLD FRONT STALLS FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA TO WESTERN KANSAS BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE FRONT THEN ATTEMPTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT SATURDAY. THIS OCCURS AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE BEGINS
TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY LOOK TO BE CHALLENGING...AS A VEIL OF LOW
CLOUDS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY DUE TO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURNING NORTHWARD. HI-RES ENSEMBLE MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT H85
IS AROUND 90% INTO THE AFTERNOON SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL LOW CLOUD
COVER AND LOWER TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI OCT 18 2024
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. A RETURN TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HUMIDITY THIS TIME AROUND WILL BE
MUCH HIGHER THAN THE LAST ROUND OF STRONG SOUTH WINDS, WHICH WILL
MINIMIZE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. BY MONDAY MORNING THE UPPER LOW
WILL TAKE ON A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN COLORADO
AND THEN TO CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY MONDAY EVENING. OVERALL THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE LOOKS RATHER LIMITED AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE
AREA. THIS IS DUE TO STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL EXTEND
FROM THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL RETURN MOISTURE. STILL, A NARROW RIBBON OF
MOISTURE DOES FLOW NORTHWARD ACROSS WEST TEXAS INTO KANSAS AND
NEBRASKA. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH DECENT DYNAMICS SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THOUGH
MONDAY.
SYSTEM QUICKLY DEPARTS TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES RETURN ONCE AGAIN. A BRIEF COOL DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OCCUR WEDNESDAY AS A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
THEN LOOK FOR A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH A STRONG SIGNAL FROM THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT FRI OCT 18 2024
LOW STRATUS WITH MVFR/LOCALLY IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA BEHIND A COLD FRONT. BY EARLY THIS EVENING,
SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE SANDHILLS, WITH AN EXPANSION IN
MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED. THESE MVFR/LOCALLY IFR CIGS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT, GRADUALLY
IMPROVING TOWARDS THE END OF THE VALID PERIOD TOMORROW.
WINDS REMAIN GUSTY FOR SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA TERMINALS
FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON, AT AROUND 20 TO 25KTS.
ADDITIONALLY, NORTHERLY GUSTS OF 20 TO 25KTS CONTINUE FOR
WESTERN NEBRASKA TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY FOR ALL TERMINALS SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET, WITH NORTH WINDS THEN CONTINUING INTO TOMORROW MORNING,
AT AROUND 5 TO 15KTS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...BROWN
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