001
FXUS63 KLBF 191137
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
637 AM CDT SAT OCT 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE
AREA MOST FAVORED IS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.
- GENERALLY MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. NO
STRONG WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE LIKELY AFTER MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH WRN/NCNTL NEBRASKA TUESDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT SAT OCT 19 2024
THE RAIN ACROSS NCNTL NEBRASKA SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY 12Z THIS
MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN PLACE THIS MORNING ACROSS SWRN
NEBRASKA. THERE IS A CHANCE, A SMALL CHANCE, THE ONGOING RAIN
ACTIVITY ACROSS ERN COLO WILL CREEP NORTH INTO SWRN NEBRASKA.
OTHERWISE, THERE ARE NO RAIN CHANCES UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING WHEN THE
UPPER LOW ACROSS AZ/NM WILL APPROACH NEBRASKA.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS MIDDLE-OF-THE-ROAD USING THE SHORT TERM
MODEL BLEND PLUS BIAS CORRECTION. THE COLD FRONT ACROSS SCNTL/NERN
NEBRASKA SHOULD LIFT BACK NORTH TONIGHT OPENING UP A WARM SECTOR
ACROSS WRN NEBRASKA. RECENT RAINFALL, UPWARDS OF A 1/4 TO 3/4 OF AN
INCH SHOULD MODERATE THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE AND THIS IS
HANDLED WELL BY THE BLEND VS THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.
THE 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE NAM IS STRONG TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST WITH THE APPROACH
AND PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LOW. THERE IS ALSO EXCELLENT FORCING FROM A
BROAD PV1.5 PRESSURE ANOMALY WHICH WILL LIFT THROUGH COLO, KS AND
CNTL/ERN NEBRASKA LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. K-INDICES ARE NORTH OF 30C
IN THE NAM AND RAP MODELS ACROSS SWRN/CNTL NEBRASKA AND THIS SHOULD
ENHANCE CONVECTION. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE H700MB SUPPORT WILL TRY
AND LIFT NORTH OF COLO, MOVING THROUGH WY, WHILE THE H500MB LOW
TRACKS THROUGH COLO. ALL OF THIS COULD SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ACROSS SWRN/NCNTL NEBRASKA, AND PERHAPS THE WEST TOO, BUT THE MODELS
ARE CASTING THE BEST RAIN MOSTLY ACROSS KS AND SCNTL AND SERN
NEBRASKA.
IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS. THE BLENDED FORECAST WAS
VERY GENEROUS WITH POPS FAVORING AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
AND GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, THIS SEEMS WARRANTED.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT SAT OCT 19 2024
SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS AK WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS OR COLDER WILL BUILD SOUTH THROUGH CANADA AND BLEND WITH
PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE COLD SIDE OF
THE HIGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH JUST A MODEST
COOL- DOWN ACROSS WRN/NCNTL NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF FGEN
AND MOISTURE POOLING WILL PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
PRESENTING WHAT LOOKS LIKE AN ISOLATED RAIN CHANCE ACROSS NRN
NEBRASKA ACCORDING TO THE ECM AND GFS. THE BLENDED FORECAST
BACKED BY THE WPC QPF HAVE LOFTIER AMBITIONS SUGGESTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS. ONCE THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST
GOES DRY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS/SRN CANADA THURSDAY WHICH DEEPENS FRIDAY. A WARM
FRONT SHOULD MOVE EAST THROUGH WRN NEBRASKA THURSDAY AND NCNTL
NEBRASKA FRIDAY. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECM/GEM WITH THIS
FEATURE. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ARE IN PLACE THURSDAY WHICH
WARM INTO THE 70S FRIDAY. THE SLOWER ECM WILL DELAY THIS WARM UP
ABOUT A DAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SAT OCT 19 2024
LOWER CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED BEHIND AN AREA OF RAIN THAT HAS
MOVED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. MVFR AND LOCAL IFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS INTO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KTS BY
THIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...TAYLOR
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