330
FXUS63 KLBF 201143
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
643 AM CDT SUN OCT 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WET WEATHER IS POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83.
- DRY AND MILD WEATHER RESUMES TUESDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH
NEXT SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER SHOWERS ACROSS
NRN NEBRASKA TUESDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN OCT 20 2024
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS UNDERWAY WITH AREA OF STRATUS DEVELOPING
ACROSS MUCH OF WRN NEBRASKA. THE SKY FORECAST TODAY LEANS ON THE NBM
90TH PERCENTILE FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. IT IS SURPRISING NONE OF
THE MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS FEATURE. EVEN THE SREF ISN'T
CAPTURING THE CLOUD COVER. THE MODELS SHOW MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TODAY, TONIGHT AND MONDAY AND THIS SHOULD CERTAINLY
MAINTAIN SOME LEVEL OF CLOUD COVER.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY LEANS TOWARD THE COOLER RAP MODEL FOR
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80. THE SHORT TERM MODEL AND THE RAP MODEL
SUGGESTED HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S MONDAY.
THE BASIC POP FORECAST LEANS ON THE RAP MODEL ALSO. IT, AND A SMALL
MINORITY OF THE CAMS, ARE THE FARTHEST WEST WITH RAIN CHANCES
EXTENDING AS FAR WEST AS HIGHWAY 61 MONDAY. THE STALLED UPPER LEVEL
LOW ACROSS AZ SHOULD BEGIN MOVING EAST NORTHEAST TODAY FOLLOWING A
TRACK THROUGH COLO, KS AND SRN NEBRASKA. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE H700MB LOW TRACKING THROUGH NRN COLO AND SRN WY LATE TONIGHT AND
SRN NEBRASKA MONDAY. THE MODELS SUGGEST MOISTURE AVAILABILITY ACROSS
SRN NEBRASKA WILL BE NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX WHICH IS AROUND
1.00 INCH THIS TIME OF YEAR. THERE IS ALSO SIGNIFICANT COOLING ALOFT
WITH H500MB TEMPERATURES FALLING FROM -10C THIS EVENING TO -16C
MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. THE MORE WESTERLY TRACK OF
THE RAP MODEL SHOWS 1000J/KG OF CAPE MOVING THROUGH SWRN NEBRASKA
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE FOCUS FOR MOST OF THE STORM DEVELOPMENT MONDAY WILL BE FARTHER
SOUTH ACROSS KS WHERE A PACIFIC FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST. THIS
CONVECTION, IF IT DEVELOPS FAR ENOUGH WEST, COULD LIFT NORTH THROUGH
PARTS OF SWRN AND CNTL NEBRASKA AS SUGGESTED BY THE RAP MODEL. AS IT
STANDS NOW, THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FARTHER EAST, JUST SKIRTING SWRN
NEBRASKA. THE RAIN SHOULD BE MOSTLY EAST OF NCNTL NEBRASKA MONDAY
EVENING BUT THERE IS A CHANCE IT WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN OCT 20 2024
TONIGHT'S RUN OF HE ECM, GFS AND GEM SHOW VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM MONDAY. A MODEST COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH JUST ONE COOL DAY- WEDNESDAY,
FOLLOWED BY MILD WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
IS SUGGESTED NEXT SATURDAY.
THE REASON FOR THIS WEATHER SETUP IS A PORTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
CIRCULATING OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND BRITISH COLUMBIA
WILL DROP SOUTH A BIT AND THEN MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST. THIS
WILL SET UP A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BUT THE LOW OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST WILL EVENTUALLY DROP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO FORCE WARM AIR FROM
THE SWRN U.S. INTO NEBRASKA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THERE IS STILL THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NRN NEBRASKA TUESDAY
NIGHT BUT THIS FEATURE LOOKS OVERDONE, GIVEN THE SPARTAN QPF SHOWN
BY THE ECM, GFS, NAM AND SREF. ISOLATED COVERAGE, IF ANY, WOULD
APPEAR MORE APPROPRIATE THAN THE SCATTERED COVERAGE CURRENTLY IN THE
FORECAST. THIS IS THE ONLY RAIN CHANCE BEYOND MONDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT SUN OCT 20 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 15 TO 25 KTS BY THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT,
WITH MOST OF THE IMPACT EAST OF HWY 83.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...TAYLOR
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