962
FXUS63 KLBF 211746
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1246 PM CDT MON OCT 21 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A STORM
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY.
A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH NEAR NORMAL READINGS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
- AFTER TODAY, MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON OCT 21 2024
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER COLORADO EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA BY THIS EVENING. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS
PRESENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.
A NARROW RIBBON OF LOW-LEVEL RETURN MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM WESTERN
TEXAS NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA WITHIN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION.
THIS MORNING, MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IS IN FULL SWING WITH
ASCENT OVERSPREADING THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND INTO
NORTHWEST KANSAS. THIS FIRST ROUND OF ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. THE ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO
DECREASE AS IT TRIES TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AWAY FROM THE BETTER DYNAMICS.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. AS
THE UPPER LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA, IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY
COLD AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL HELP TO STEEPEN MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
INCREASE INSTABILITY...AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO NEAR OR
ABOVE 70F WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. A DRY SLOT WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD FROM COLORADO INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS LATE THIS MORNING.
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS
LATE THIS MORNING ALONG A DRY LINE BULGE. A WEAK SURFACE LOW
REFLECTION/TRIPLE POINT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THIS SAME AREA WITH
SURFACE WINDS BACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
INTO NORTHERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. AS THE NORTHWEST KANSAS
CONVECTION MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THIS ENVIRONMENT, LOW-TOPPED
ROTATING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT, HAIL WILL
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO, AND THIS
WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR NEAR THE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOVING TRIPLE
POINT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS. ANOTHER
THREAT TO WATCH FOR WOULD BE SOME ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS MIXING
TO THE SURFACE...WITH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT.
STORMS WILL EXIT THE AREA AROUND SUNSET WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT
WILL BE PACIFIC IN NATURE, AND REALLY NO COOLING IS EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT TUESDAY. HUMIDITY WILL BE LOWER, BUT NOT REACHING ANY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS. THERE DOES LOOK TO BE SOME FAIRLY
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS, WITH BUFKIT SOUNDING DATA SUGGESTING GUSTS
REACHING UP TO AROUND 35 MPH OR SO. THIS WILL MOSTLY OCCUR ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON OCT 21 2024
A SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS NORTHERN THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. A
MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK AND A FEW SHOWERS MAY SKIRT ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA WITH THIS SYSTEM. DO EXPECT SOME COOLER AIR TO FILTER
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY, BUT STILL EXPECTING HIGHS TO NE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
BRIEF RIDGING OCCURS THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND COLD
FRONT THAT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTER AN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURE DAY THURSDAY, HIGHS WILL COOL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
FRIDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. RIDGING ALOFT THEN REALLY BEGINS
TO TAKE HOLD FOR THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE ENS AND GEFS AGREE THAT
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE CARDS FOR SUNDAY INTO
THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT MON OCT 21 2024
A THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED AT KLBF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH KLBF AND KVTN THROUGH 03Z. LOW
CEILINGS AT KLBF ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY 21Z. LOW
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT BOTH TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 03Z
UNTIL AROUND 09Z. WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING AROUND 09Z TO
14Z. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE LOW CEILINGS THIS EVENING
AND WIND SHEAR SO DID NOT INCLUDE THEM FOR NOW. WINDS WILL
DECREASE IN STRENGTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND WILL MOSTLY BE
OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH 06Z. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY BY 09Z
THEN TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST BY 15Z TO 18Z.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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