219
FXUS63 KLBF 220806
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
306 AM CDT TUE OCT 22 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT'S WAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES (BUT STILL NEAR NORMAL) ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
- WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT AND COOL DOWN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WARMER AGAIN LATE INTO
THE WEEKEND AND FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
COULD INCREASE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARMER WEATHER.
- OVERALL, MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT TUE OCT 22 2024
AN OCCLUDING UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE IA/NE BORDER EARLY
THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT'S WAY QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LAG
SOMEWHAT BEHIND THE FRONT, SO DESPITE A WIND SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARM TODAY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE
WELL MIXED AND IT WILL BE QUITE WINDY. REGIONAL SOUNDING PROFILES
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR 30-35 MPH WIND GUSTS FROM LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY BE
MODERATELY LOW TODAY, GENERALLY IN THE 30-40% RANGE. PARTS OF THE
PANHANDLE AND FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA MAY DROP TO NEAR 25%, BUT
RECENT RAINFALL IN THIS AREA WILL HELP TO KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
IN CHECK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AND WILL
BE CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THIS OCCURS. ALOFT, MID-LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION SPREADS EASTWARD OFF THE ROCKIES...WITH A MID-LEVEL
CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS AND NORTHERN
NEBRASKA. DID ADD SOME SPRINKLES TO THE FORECAST, BUT KEPT POPS
BELOW 20% DUE TO A DRY LAYER OF AIR EVIDENT ABOUT 5K FT AGL. MAY SEE
MORE VIRGA THAN ANYTHING, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW DROPS REACHING
THE GROUND.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD IA DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY RETURN LOW-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA
BY AFTERNOON, WITH FAIRLY GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA. COOLER AIR WILL RECYCLE BACK NORTHWARD AROUND THE
SURFACE HIGH, SO TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT TUE OCT 22 2024
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CONUS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME, NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN OUR
AREA FROM THIS SYSTEM. THERE WILL BE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE,
HOWEVER. THIS WILL COOL HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S THURSDAY
DOWN TO THE 60S ON FRIDAY.
RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO BUILD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES APPEAR THEY WILL BE QUITE WARM AS THE
RIDGING TAKES HOLD. GEFS/ENS ENSEMBLE DATA INDICATES A TEMPERATURE
ANOMALIES RUNNING 15 TO 20 DEGREES F ABOVE AVERAGE BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS WILL PUSH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S BOTH OF THESE DAYS.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL LIKELY INCREASE DURING THIS TIME,
ESPECIALLY WEST OF HWY 83 WHERE HUMIDITY WILL BE LOW AND WINDS
GUSTY. A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
WILL LEAD TO THE START OF THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN...A CLASSIC
SIGNAL FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT TUE OCT 22 2024
AN AREA OF IFR/LIFR IN FOG HAS DEVELOPED NORTH AND SOUTH ALONG
HIGHWAY 83 NORTH OF I-80. THIS FLIGHT CONCERN WILL DRIFT EAST
OVERNIGHT AND EXIT NCNTL NEBRASKA 12Z-15Z TUESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH MT WILL SWEEP INTO
WRN/NCNTL NEBRASKA TUESDAY MORNING WITH WINDS INCREASING TO
34020G30KT. THERE ARE NO OTHER FLIGHT CONCERNS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC
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