459
FXUS63 KLBF 222100
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
400 PM CDT TUE OCT 22 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- OUTSIDE OF SPRINKLES ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES RETURN BACK ABOVE AVERAGE LATE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK (70S). THE COMBINATION OF THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES, DRY AIR, AND BREEZY WINDS COULD LEAD TO
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
- A RIDGE BREAKDOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD LEAD TO INCREASING
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA, DUE TO A COMBINATION OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
AND GUSTY WINDS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT TUE OCT 22 2024
CURRENTLY, TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA,
WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH
THIS MORNING. ALOFT, ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS
SPILLING SOUTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
FOR TONIGHT, STILL EXPECTING A THREAT FOR SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA, AS MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION RETURNS INTO
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFTS' THINKING, AS
ENOUGH DRY AIR REMAINS IN THE LOWEST FEW KILOMETERS TO LIMIT
PRECIPITATION TO SPRINKLES. BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL MIGRATE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA, ALLOWING FOR EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AS MID-LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO EXIT TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA AND WINDS WEAKEN. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOWS
FALLING INTO THE 30S, WITH LOWER 30S ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER.
BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING, THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA, WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA IN ITS WAKE. THE INCREASING WARM ADVECTION
WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S, WITH LOWER 60S
FURTHER EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA, WHERE NORTHERLY FLOW
TAKES LONGER TO VEER SOUTHERLY. SOUTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW, AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
BEGINS ACROSS NORTHEAST WY. GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MILES PER HOUR CAN
BE EXPECTED NEAR AND WEST OF HWY 61 THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.
ENOUGH SURFACE MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TO KEEP
HUMIDITY VALUES ELEVATED AND KEEP FIRE CONCERNS LIMITED. THE
PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION LOOKS TO KEEP WINDS ELEVATED
OVERNIGHT TOMORROW NIGHT, AND THIS KEEPS LOWS MORE MILD THAN
TONIGHT, IN THE 40S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT TUE OCT 22 2024
ZONAL FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT BRIEFLY, BEFORE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH QUICKLY EJECTS EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE, THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW EJECTS
EASTWARD OUT OF NORTHEAST WY INTO SD, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GOOD PRESSURE
RISES IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, ALONG WITH INCREASING
COLD ADVECTION AND LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS IN THE LOWEST
FEW KILOMETERS, SHOULD LEAD TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MILES PER HOUR
ARE EXPECTED, THOUGH AGAIN HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN
ELEVATED ENOUGH TO LIMIT ANY CRITICAL FIRE CONCERNS.
UPPER RIDGING THEN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS IN THE
WAKE OF THURSDAY'S SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES
MODERATING BACK ABOVE AVERAGE BY LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE CONCERNING DAY LOOKS TO BE MONDAY, AS RIDGE BREAKDOWN OCCURS AND
COULD LEAD TO INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. IN FACT, ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO PAINT H85 TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE THE
90TH PERCENTILE CLIMO MONDAY AFTERNOON, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY ECMWF EXTREME FORECAST INDEX
GUIDANCE, WITH A SIGNAL IN PLACE FOR ANOMALOUSLY WARM
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS, COMBINED
WITH GUSTY WINDS BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS, AND TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY
GOING FORWARD.
DEEP UPPER TROUGHING WILL BEGIN TO EJECT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE PLAINS
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THOUGH CONFIDENCE WANES WITH THE EVOLUTION AND ITS
EVENTUAL TRACK. THIS LOOKS TO PRESENT THE NEXT SHOT OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION LOCALLY, AND TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED GOING FORWARD.
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION REMAINS LOW, MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THAN WE'VE SEEN THE PAST FEW WEEKS IS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY, AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
AND BRINGS A RETURN OF NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT TUE OCT 22 2024
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL BE A SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION WITH
THIS FEATURE WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY, THEN NORTHEASTERLY
OVERNIGHT. SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO
30 KTS DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10 KTS AFTER SUNSET. SKIES WILL BE
SCATTERED TO BROKEN TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS RANGING FROM 15000 TO
20000 FT AGL.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BROWN
LONG TERM...BROWN
AVIATION...BUTTLER
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