239
FXUS63 KLBF 231725
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1225 PM CDT WED OCT 23 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY DEVELOP FOR A FEW HOURS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY. THE AREA OF CONCERN IS ACROSS
PARTS OF NCNTL AND SWRN NEBRASKA.
- THE NEXT RAIN CHANCE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED OCT 23 2024
THE AREA OF MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS UNDERWAY ACROSS NCNTL NEBRASKA
AND SRN SD WILL TRANSLATE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXIT AROUND
12Z. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME PREDICTING THE
ONGOING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FEATURE BUT
EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS A FEW DAYS AGO DID.
IT IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT WHETHER OR NOT ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH. MOISTURE FROM A SUBTROPICAL
PLUME MOVING IN OFF THE PACIFIC WILL BE OVERHEAD AND THERE ARE
INDICATIONS IN THE MODELS THE AREAS OF MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS WRN/NCNTL NEBRASKA. THE FORECAST RESTS ON PREVIOUS
RUNS ON THE GFS AND THE LATEST SREF WHICH SUGGEST NO ADDITIONAL RAIN
WILL DEVELOP.
THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST IS A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS UNDERWAY TODAY
WILL LIFT NORTH AND REMAIN NORTH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE
FOCUSED ACROSS SD. THIS PLACES PARTS OF SWRN AND NCNTL NEBRASKA
UNDER A THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S SHOULD OCCUR IN THIS REGION WITH 60S ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.
THERE ARE ALSO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SURROUNDING WIND SPEEDS,
TEMPERATURES AND THE RESULTANT HUMIDITY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY. IT IS ALSO WORTH NOTING RAINFALL ACROSS SOME OF THIS AREA
MAY HAVE BEEN SUFFICIENT TO AFFECT DEW POINTS. THE FORECAST RESPECTS
THE RAINFALL AND PRESENTS HUMIDITY 25 TO 30 PERCENT. THERE IS A
CHANCE HUMIDITY WILL BRIEFLY FALL TO 20 PERCENT, AND GIVEN THE
PREDICTED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH GUSTING 35 MPH, SIGNIFICANT FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS MAY DEVELOP FOR A FEW HOURS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED OCT 23 2024
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FORMING A LONG WAVE TROF OFF THE
WEST COAST BY SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT WARM AIR ADVECTION
INTO NEBRASKA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE IN PLACE
BOTH DAYS. THIS TROF WILL MIGRATE INLAND WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT ARRIVING IN NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. LOW END
CHANCE POPS ARE IN PLACE FOR THE FRONT WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE QPF IN THE ECM AND GFS BUT IT'S WORTH NOTING THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY OVER ERN SIBERIA AND THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM MAY WELL CHANGE.
AT LEAST FOR TODAY, THE GRAND ENSEMBLE OF THE ENS, GEFS AND
GEPS SUGGEST NO MAJOR STORM FOR THE CNTL OR NRN PLAINS. THE
25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILE MSLP RANGES FROM AROUND 995MB TO 1002MB
WITH OUTLIERS IN THE LOW 980S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT WED OCT 23 2024
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TODAY
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA, SUBSIDING SOME
FOR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. THIS IS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THAT WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA TOWARDS THE
END OF THE VALID PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS
THE NORTH/NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE
FRONT.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...VIKEN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page