191
FXUS63 KLBF 231919
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
219 PM CDT WED OCT 23 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR STRONG
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA
TOMORROW.
- POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS PRIMARILY DUE TO WIND THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
WEST OF HWY 83.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR TEMPERATURES WARMING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
AGAIN THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
- DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST UNTIL POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL STARTS TO
INCREASE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT WED OCT 23 2024
THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE UNDER SOME HIGH CLOUDS WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA FOLLOWING
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LAST NIGHT. EXPECT THESE FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO OUR EAST COMBINES WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST TO DEVELOP A LOW LEVEL JET WITH SOME
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
THE COLD FRONT WILL START TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE NEAR
THE PINE RIDGE AROUND DAYBREAK, REACHING HWY 83 AROUND MIDDAY, THEN
MOVING OFF INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. EARLIER PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
INTO THE SANDHILLS, BUT FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL REACH THE 90TH PERCENTILE WITH A SMALL SIGNAL FOR ELEVATED
TEMPERATURES IN EFI GUIDANCE AS WELL. THE RESULT WILL BE HIGHS TOMORROW
RANGING FROM AROUND 60 NORTHWEST TO THE MIDDLE 70S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
80. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY VEER TO THE NORTHWEST/NORTH AND
BECOME QUITE GUSTY. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS A BETTER THAN EVEN
CHANCE FOR GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 30MPH ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION, THOUGH UP
AROUND HWY 20 THROUGH THE SANDHILLS THE PROBABILITY FOR GUSTS AT OR
ABOVE 40MPH IS AROUND 70 PERCENT. FORCING WITH THE FRONT IS ROBUST WITH
GOOD MIDLEVEL FGEN AND DEFORMATION, BUT MOISTURE REMAINS CONFINED MAINLY
TO MID AND UPPER LEVELS WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING PERSISTENT DRY
AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. A SPRINKLE OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT MAINLY
NORTH OF HWY 2 BUT PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CHANCE OF ANY
PRECIPITATION 0.01" OR MORE WELL UNDER 25 PERCENT WITH ANY MEANINGFUL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN A POOL OF UNSTABLE AIR LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA. THE COMBINATION OF
PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS TOMORROW MAY CREATE A WINDOW
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ELEVATED TO POTENTIALLY NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MAINLY WEST OF HWY 83 DESPITE NON-CRITICAL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AT OR ABOVE 30 PERCENT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS DOWN INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH QUIET WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS. LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 20S WEST TO MIDDLE
30S EAST AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT WED OCT 23 2024
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN
ADVERTISING A WARMER AND CONTINUED DRY PATTERN WITH AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE WINDY WITH THE RIDGE BREAKING
DOWN AND THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST PLACING THE
REGION IN DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS A BETTER
THAN EVEN CHANCE FOR SOUTHERLY GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 30 MPH ACROSS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA, INCREASING TO A 70 PERCENT CHANCE FOR GUSTS AT OR
ABOVE 40MPH ACROSS THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS. THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK WILL HELP TEMPERATURES ALOFT SURGE FROM
THE 90TH TO THE 99TH PERCENTILE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND EFI/SOT GUIDANCE
SHOWS A MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE SIGNAL FOR TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. BLENDED ENSEMBLE 50TH PERCENTILE HIGHS FOR SUNDAY RANGE FROM
NEAR 80 ACROSS THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS INTO THE PANHANDLE WITH MIDDLE
70S FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST, AND REMAINING IN THE MID/UPPER 70S FOR
MONDAY. WITH THE PERSISTENT WARM, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY WEST OF HWY 83 AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION MAY ARRIVE
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF A BROAD
UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN US.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT WED OCT 23 2024
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TODAY
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA, SUBSIDING SOME
FOR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. THIS IS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THAT WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA TOWARDS THE
END OF THE VALID PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS
THE NORTH/NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE
FRONT.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...VIKEN
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