337
FXUS63 KLBF 241108
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
608 AM CDT THU OCT 24 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A WIND SWITCH TO
THE NORTHWEST. GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FEW
SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
- SOME CONCERN FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY,
MAINLY FOR AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
- CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS A STORM SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU OCT 24 2024
A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. DID ADD SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
NEBRASKA AND THE SANDHILLS. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE STRONG
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL DEVELOP AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. FAIRLY HIGH PROBABILITY OF WIND GUSTS
IN THE 35-45 MPH RANGE AND HAVE BUMPED UP GUSTS SOME. THE OTHER
CONCERN WILL BE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO
AROUND 30% IN THESE AREAS, THE GUSTY WINDS AND DRY FUELS WOULD ALLOW
ANY FIRE TO SPREAD QUICKLY. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LAG SOME BEHIND
THE FRONT...AND TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE AREA AS WARMER AIR ALOFT INITIALLY MIXES TO THE SURFACE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND BE LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS BY FRIDAY
MORNING. AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN THE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH
IT WILL BE DRY. HAVE LOWER LOWS TONIGHT A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. MOST MEMBERS OF THE NBM HAVE TEMPERATURES BELOW
26F SO SETTLED ON LOWS IN THE 23-25F DEGREE RANGE.
THE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY...AND BE CENTERED ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING. COOLER AIR WILL HAVE FILTERED INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY, AND HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. RETURN SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW DOES DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA BY AFTERNOON. AGAIN THERE WILL BE SOME CONCERN FOR ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN SANDHILLS. LOWEST
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL BE IN THE 25-30% RANGE ALONG WITH WINDS
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU OCT 24 2024
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY THIS WEEKEND AND EXTEND NORTHWARD
WELL INTO CANADA. HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS OVER OUR AREA BY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS IS TYPICALLY A SIGNAL FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL
CERTAINLY BE THERE, BUT THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW STRONG THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE. DEFINITELY POTENTIAL FOR NEAR-CRITICAL OR
EVEN CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP IF THE WINDS ARE THERE. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE OTHER STORY WILL BE THE INCREASING CHANCES FOR AT LEAST SOME
PRECIPITATION. A LARGE TROUGH WILL CARVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL ROCKIES BY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWEST ACROSS
OUR AREA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS HAVE THIS UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA AS
A POSITIVE OPEN WAVE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. QUESTIONS REMAIN ON
THE AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE GULF MOISTURE RETURN INTO OUR AREA.
WITH THE POSITIVE TILT THE BETTER MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE DIRECTED MORE
TOWARD THE MISSOURI AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGIONS. STILL,
GOOD JET DYNAMICS, LIFT AS WELL AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC
MOISTURE, SHOULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOP OF AT LEAST SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BUT NO COLD
WEATHER AS THE AIRMASS WILL BE PACIFIC IN NATURE THAT FILTERS INTO
THE REGION.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT THU OCT 24 2024
VFR SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TERMINALS AS CLOUD COVER REMAINS AT THE
MID OR HIGH LEVELS. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY PUSH THROUGH
THE SANDHILLS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT VISBY OR CEILING RESTRICTIONS
APPEAR UNLIKELY. HOWEVER, WIND WILL BE AN AVIATION WEATHER
CONCERN AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE STATE. SOUTHERLY
WINDS THIS MORNING WILL RAPIDLY TRANSITION TO NORTH/NORTHWEST
MIDDAY AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 30
KTS, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS (VTN). WINDS THEN TAPER
MID TO LATE EVENING AS CLOUDS CLEAR OUT.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...SNIVELY
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