048
FXUS63 KLBF 250529
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1229 AM CDT FRI OCT 25 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TOMORROW.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR TEMPERATURES WARMING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
AGAIN THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
- DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST UNTIL POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
STARTS TO INCREASE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT THU OCT 24 2024
THE COLD FRONT CROSSING CENTRAL NEBRASKA IS MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST
WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT USHERING IN MUCH
COLDER AIR FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA FOR THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK. ANY LINGERING SPRINKLES WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS ABOUT A 50% CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO 40MPH
WEST OF HWY 83 FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING WANES WITH LOSS OF HEATING EARLY THIS EVENING. THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE QUIET WITH AS LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER NEBRASKA. BY DAYBREAK TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE 20S FROM THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND SANDHILLS TO
RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. GIVEN WARM
WATER TEMPERATURES THIS TIME OF THE YEAR EXPECT SOME STEAM FOG NEAR
RIVERS AND LAKES BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY LARGER SCALE VISIBILITY
PROBLEMS. HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE AREA TOMORROW WITH
TEMPERATURES THAT MAY FEEL COOL BUR ARE ACTUALLY RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL
FOR LATE OCTOBER AS AFTERNOON HIGHS PEAK AROUND 60 DEGREES. BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AS THE HIGH WILL BE MOVING
OFF TO THE EAST AND SETTING THE STAGE FOR A RETURN TO VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT THU OCT 24 2024
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
MONDAY ADVERTISING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND A CONTINUED DRY
PATTERN WITH AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES.
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BEGIN A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND AS STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PUSHES A WARM FRONT INTO THE REGION WITH A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE PLAINS. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
SHOWS A BETTER THAN EVEN CHANCE FOR GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 30MPH NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80, INCREASING TO A 60 PERCENT CHANCE FOR GUSTS AT OR
ABOVE 40MPH ACROSS THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS UP AROUND HWY 20. THE
CONTINUED DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS GRADUALLY
MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES ALOFT SURGE FROM THE 90TH PERCENTILE SUNDAY TO THE
99TH PERCENTILE MONDAY AND EFI/SOT GUIDANCE SHOWS A MODERATE TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE SIGNAL FOR TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
BLENDED ENSEMBLE 50TH PERCENTILE HIGHS FOR SUNDAY WILL BE WELL
INTO THE 70S AND NEAR 80 DEGREES BY MONDAY, WHICH WILL BE 15 TO
20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WITH THE PERSISTENT WARM, DRY, AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TO NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY WEST OF HWY 83 AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80.
BY MONDAY NIGHT A DEEP TROF WILL START DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN US,
PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO NEBRASKA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS
WILL BE A VERY BIG CHANGE FROM TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL TO
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION, THOUGH AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE AND MOSTLY IN THE WEST AS THE PROBABILITY
FOR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS UP TO 0.10" IS ONLY ABOUT 50% WEST OF HWY
83 LATER TUESDAY/NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WHAT IS NOTABLE IS THE
PROBABILITY FOR A TRACE OF SNOW UP NEAR THE PINE RIDGE FROM 10% TO
30% TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT FRI OCT 25 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT AROUND 5 KTS
OVERNIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST, THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
IN THE MORNING.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...GOMEZ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page