066
FXUS63 KLBF 161736
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1136 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL CLIMB GENERALLY INTO THE 50S AND 60S, OR AROUND 5
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-NOVEMBER.
- A STRONG STORM SYSTEM REMAINS ON TRACK TO PASS THROUGH
PORTIONS OF THE REGION, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS
INCLUDING ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION REMAINS SOMEWHAT LIMITED.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO CLIMB OUT OF THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
- THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND WITH MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOKS FAVORING A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 420 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
BROAD AREA OF MID TO UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS TRACKING SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THIS IS LARGELY
COINCIDENT WITH A STRONG LLJ POINTING INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
MODERATE WAA AS A RESULT OF THIS IS HELPING SPUR CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN THE ENHANCED FLOW. THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING SATURDAY, A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL FORM ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. NAEFS
OUTPUT SUGGESTS MSLP VALUES FALLING TO AROUND THE 10TH PERCENTILE.
THIS COINCIDES WITH THE TRAILING COOL FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY. FORCING IS MODEST AT BEST AND THIS COINCIDING WITH
MARGINAL MOISTURE, ILLUSTRATED BY PWAT VALUES AROUND 0.25-0.40",
SUPPORTS A DRY FORECAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WHICH
WILL BE THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY.
STRONGER H85 CAA WITHIN THE DRY AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO MODEST
KINEMATIC MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND LEAD TO INCREASING WINDS
AMONGST DECREASING AFTERNOON HUMIDITY. THE GOING FORECAST CALLS FOR
GUSTS PEAKING ACROSS THE SANDHILLS WHERE PEAK SPEEDS MAY REACH THE
30 TO 35 MPH RANGE WITH WEAKER SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL SLIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS DAY OVER DAY
WITH MANY LOCATIONS ONCE AGAIN REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
FURTHER NORTHWEST OVER THE WESTERN SANDHILLS, FORECAST HIGHS ARE
LIKELY TO HOLD IN THE UPPER 40S THOUGH. MUCH COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO COOLING H85
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS DEGC.
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MODEST HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA CLOSER TO SUNRISE SUNDAY. WITH THE RESULTANT
LIGHTER WINDS WITHIN THE DRIER AIRMASS, AN OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING SETUP APPEARS LIKELY. FORECAST LOWS ARE LIKELY TO REACH THE
LOW 20S WEST TO NEAR 30 DEGF IN THE FAR EAST.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...HEIGHTS INCREASE QUICKLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH LIFTS NORTH AND EAST
INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA. A DEEP H5 CUTOFF WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW LINGER FOR THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AS A RESULT. NWP GUIDANCE ALL SUGGESTS AN
ELONGATED PUSH OF RICHER MOISTURE ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THIS
FEATURE BUT ALL AGREE THAT THIS IS LIKELY TO REMAIN EAST OF THE
IMMEDIATE AREA. THE RESULT IS SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN SETTLE INTO THE 50S FOR MOST IF NOT ALL
LOCATIONS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON THE
BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. THE STRONGEST OF THESE GUSTS
WILL FAVOR THE SANDHILLS INTO NEBRASKA PANHANDLE ONCE AGAIN WHERE
SPEEDS WILL PEAK AROUND 25 TO 35 MPH. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OFF THE
SURFACE WILL REMAIN ELEVATED HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. EVEN SO,
VARIOUS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG BUT REMAIN SPLIT ON
LOCATIONS IMPACTED. NAM AND NAM NEST SOLUTIONS REMAIN AGGRESSIVE
WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. CONVERSELY, NBM AND SREF PROBABILITIES REMAIN MINIMAL SO
WILL LEAVE FOG MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS. LOWS WILL SETTLE IN THE MIDDLE 20S WEST TO LOW 30S EAST WITH
VALUES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAT SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 420 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...THE TIMEFRAME OF GREATEST INTEREST OF THE
WHOLE FORECAST PERIOD. A WELL ADVERTISED DEEP LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS THE SOUTHWEST CUTOFF LOW
BEGINS TO EJECT AND LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS
FEATURE WILL IMMEDIATELY TAKE A NEGATIVE TILT WITH STRONG UPPER-
LEVEL DYNAMICS INCLUDING STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT FROM A COUPLED JET
STRUCTURE FOCUSED OVER CENTRAL KANSAS TOWARDS MIDDAY. ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT, PEGGING A DEEP SUB-990 HPA
SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA UP INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. NAEFS GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS THE TIMEFRAME AS
SEEING SURFACE PRESSURES FALL BELOW 5TH PERCENTILE. SIMILARLY, GIVEN
THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND RESULTANT LIFT, THE ECMWF EXTREME FORECAST
INDEX SHOWCASES LARGE ANOMALIES OF 0.8 OR HIGHER FOR MUCH OF EASTERN
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. THIS LINES UP WITH SHIFT OF
TAILS VALUES REACHING 1-2 OVER A SIMILAR FOOTPRINT. WITH GREATER
UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND THE FAIRLY DISPLACED TRACK
OF THE RESULTANT SURFACE LOW, LOCAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE SEEN
DOWNWARD TRENDS OVER THE LATEST FORECASTS. NAM AND GFS BOTH PLACE
THE GREATEST ASCENT VIA DEFORMATION TO OUR IMMEDIATE EAST WITH A
VERY SHARP DROP-OFF IN QPF TO THE WEST. MEANWHILE, THE ECMWF SUGGESTS
A FURTHER NORTHWEST PUSH OF QPF LIKELY DUE TO MID-LEVEL LOWS BEING
DISPLACED FURTHER NORTHWEST. LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE,
PROBABILITIES OF QPF EXCEEDING 0.10" EXHIBIT THE SHARP GRADIENT AS
EXPECTED BUT EVEN EPS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN SEEING
THESE AMOUNTS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST
FORECAST IS A MIX OF EPS/GEFS OUTPUT WHICH HAS WETTING PRECIPITATION
EAST OF A MAYWOOD TO AINSWORTH LINE. NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THIS
IS TOO FAR WEST AND EVEN ADVERTISE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS THE LINGERING
UNCERTAINTY THAT MAKES FOR A LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FORECAST. GUT
FEELING IS THAT POPS ARE OVERDONE AND SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS WILL SEE
FURTHER DECREASES AS WELL AS A SHARPENING OF THE WEST TO EAST
GRADIENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN WITH THE MOST
BULLISH PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK, TEMPERATURES SHOULD FAVOR RAIN FOR
THE MAJORITY IF NOT THE ENTIRE EVENT WITH THE LONE EXCEPTION BEING
IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO ARRIVE EARLY ENOUGH MONDAY TO ALLOW FOR
SOME WET SNOWFLAKES. NO WINTRY IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH. WHAT IS
MORE PROBABLE THOUGH IS STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS QUICKLY
DEVELOPING BY MONDAY EVENING AND LASTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL AGAIN INCREASE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
PASSING SURFACE LOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO STRONG WINDS GUSTING AROUND
30 TO 35 MPH DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. LOWS WILL
AGAIN FALL INTO THE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S WEST TO EAST.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MUCH COLDER DAYS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
THE PASSING SYSTEM. THOUGH DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED, THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL FOCUS ON THE COLDER TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUATION OF
STRONG WINDS. AS THE SURFACE LOW OCCLUDES ACROSS THE UPPER-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, IT'LL SLOW DOWN. MEANWHILE, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL PROLONG A COMPRESSED
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND UPSTREAM FETCH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
INTRUDING COLD AIR. THE STRONGER CAA AND PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SUPPORT CONTINUED WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
FACTORING IN DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE 30S AND 40S, PEAK
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WIND CHILLS) WILL ONLY REACH THE 20S AND 30S
DEGF MAKING FOR FAIRLY RAW DAYS. EFI VALUES SUGGEST THE GREATEST
ANOMALOUS WINDS REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA WITH SIMILAR LOCATIONS FOR
THE GREATEST SOT VALUES SO CURRENT THINKING IS WIND GUSTS SHOULD
FALL SHORT OF HIGH WIND CRITERIA AND LIKELY SHORT OF 50 MPH. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS IDEA SO LITTLE ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO
INHERITED MODEL BLEND WINDS AND WIND GUSTS.
THURSDAY AND BEYOND...THE GOING FORECAST REMAINS DRY. ALOFT,
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST INCREASING HEIGHTS AND
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ABSENT OF ANY APPRECIABLE DISTURBANCES. NWP
SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY THE WEEKEND WITH DIFFERING
PLACEMENT/EVOLUTION OF THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BY THIS TIME.
OVERALL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS RIDGE AXIS MOVES IN SOMETIME AROUND
SATURDAY OR SUNDAY THOUGH AMPLITUDE VARIES QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS
LIKELY EXPLAINS THE LARGE RANGES WITHIN THE NBM FORECAST ENVELOPE
FOR DAY-TO-DAY TEMPERATURES. INNER-QUARTILE RANGES EXCEED 10 DEGF
EACH DAY FOR DAILY HIGHS AND ONLY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY FOR MORNING LOWS
AS RANGES REMAIN AROUND 6-8 DEGF. WITH A CONVOLUTED EXTENDED
FORECAST, MAINLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN, THE NORTHEAST EXTENT OF
WARMER TEMPERATURES REMAINS IN QUESTION. EVEN SO, THE EXPECTATION IS
THAT TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES AND
PERHAPS EVEN EDGE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR THE PERIOD. ALL THIS
WHILE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A FAIRLY ACTIVE NORTHERN
STREAM REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH. EVEN THE MOST BULLISH GUIDANCE,
ILLUSTRATED BY THE NBM 90TH PERCENTILE VALUES, ADVERTISES LITTLE IF
ANY QPF UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK. THIS CLOSELY
RESEMBLES LATEST CPC OUTLOOKS WHICH FAVOR NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST, WITH GUST UP TO 25 KTS.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS, INCLUDING
KVTN TERMINAL. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT OUT OF THE WEST
SOUTHWEST, LESS THAN 10 KTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY
MORNING FOR AREAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS WITH GUST OF 27
KTS OR GREATER POSSIBLE.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...GOMEZ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page