485
FXUS63 KLBF 170601
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1201 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- CONFIDENCE IS WAVERING REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE FOR RAINFALL IS FROM HIGHWAY 281 EASTWARD. HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL IS FROM HWY 61 WESTWARD.
- STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES BY LATE NEXT WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
THE UPPER TROF OVER THE WESTERN US WILL BREAK INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE BAJA PENINSULA WITH THE REST OF THE TROF CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AS AN OPEN WAVE. THIS WILL PLACE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA UNDER SOME RIDGING AND WITH LIMITED MOISTURE EXPECT
FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.
HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTY WINDS TO CONTEND WITH AS THERE WILL
BE NORTHWESTERLY 25 TO 35MPH FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON FROM
THE WESTERN SANDHILLS INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, FOLLOWED BY
SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS OF 30 TO 40MPH SUNDAY AFTERNOON NORTH OF HWY 2.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE
20S WEST OF HWY 83 TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S TO THE EAST.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE FEATURES WHICH
DEPICT THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD
AND DRIVING DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW THAT MOVES
NORTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS ON MONDAY. HOWEVER THE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES
IN HOW THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS HANDLE THE SPECIFIC TRACK OF
FEATURES WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
WILL FALL BECAUSE WEST TO EAST GRADIENTS ARE QUITE TIGHT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL.
PRECIPITATION WILL START TO PUSH UP FROM THE SOUTH BY MID TO LATE
MONDAY MORNING WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION BEING EAST OF
HWY 83 MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF
LATER MONDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR A MIXED PTYPE
AT THE ONSET OF VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WEST OF HWY 83 MONDAY MORNING
BUT EXPECT THIS WILL QUICKLY GO OVER TO ALL LIQUID AS TEMPERATURES
RISE.
MOST GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FURTHER TO THE EAST WITH THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WHICH PLACES THE SWATH OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL MORE
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS AND NEBRASKA. THESE EASTWARD SOLUTIONS
HAVE ONLY A 25% TO 50% CHANCE OF 0.50" OF RAINFALL FOR THE HWY 281
CORRIDOR WITH MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS JUST OFF TO THE EAST AND MUCH LOWER
AMOUNTS TO THE WEST AND LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION HWY 61 WESTWARD.
THE NOTABLE SOLUTIONS WHICH RESOLVE FEATURES ABOUT 50 MILES FURTHER TO
THE WEST ARE FROM THE ECMWF FAMILY/ENSEMBLES WHICH GIVE THE HWY 281
CORRIDOR A 90% CHANCE FOR 0.50" OF RAINFALL WITH BETTER THAN A 50%
CHANCE FOR 0.50" EXTENDING BACK TO THE HWY 83 CORRIDOR THOUGH TAPERING
OFF QUICKLY FURTHER TO THE WEST WITH LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION HWY 61 WESTWARD. ENSEMBLE QPF PLUMES ADD LITTLE
CERTAINTY AS THEY EXHIBIT SUBSTANTIAL SPREAD WITH EPS MEMBERS
RANGING FROM 0 TO 1.81" AT O'NEILL. GEFS MEMBERS AT O'NEILL
RANGE FROM 0 TO 0.98" THOUGH A BIT OF A BIMODAL DISTRIBUTION HAS
DEVELOPED IN THE PLUMES WHICH INDICATE SOME INTERNAL STRIFE
WITHIN THE GEFS FAMILY AS ONE CLUSTER OF SOLUTIONS RANGES FROM 0
TO 0.46" AND THE OTHER SMALLER CLUSTER RANGES FROM 0.73" TO
0.98". GIVEN THE EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE WILL
START TO TREND QPF IN THAT DIRECTION THOUGH WITH THE HISTORY OF
ECM/EPS BEING STRONG PERFORMERS AND REMAINING CONSISTENT OVER
THE PAST FEW RUNS WILL NOT CLOSE THE DOOR ON POTENTIAL FOR
HIGHER AMOUNTS AND WILL BE WATCHING TRENDS VERY CLOSELY OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL CYCLES.
BY TUESDAY A DEEP VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL BE SPINNING OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROF. THIS WILL KEEP A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS NEBRASKA WHILE ANY ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION REMAINS TO OUR NORTH AND OFF TO OUR SOUTH FROM
COLORADO INTO KANSAS. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS A 50% TO 75%
CHANCE FOR GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 40MPH NORTH OF HWY 2 ON TUESDAY,
WITH A 40% TO 60% CHANCE FOR GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 45MPH ACROSS ALL
OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA FOR WEDNESDAY. THE STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR WITH HIGHS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE 40S, AND SOME LOCATIONS NORTH
OF HWY 2 EVEN STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S.
BY THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN BUILDING A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AOB 10KT
OVERNIGHT THROUGH 15Z SUNDAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY 16Z, WITH GUSTS NEAR 30KT AT
THE KVTN TERMINAL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AFTER 00Z MONDAY.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...ROBERG
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