112
FXUS63 KLBF 172038
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
238 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES MONDAY, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND RAIN WITH WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AND HIGHEST AMOUNTS EAST OF
A NORTH PLATTE THROUGH AINSWORTH LINE.
- EVEN COOLER AND MUCH WINDIER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL WIND HEADLINES.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
A CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED IN MEXICO, TO THE SOUTH OF
ARIZONA. AN UPPER TROUGH WAS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WITH WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE,
DEEP LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA, WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND
EASTERN WYOMING. CLEAR SKIES THROUGHOUT WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. WINDS WERE SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND 15 TO 30 MPH ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
TONIGHT, THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED
1.5 PV ANOMALY LOCATED OVER EASTERN NM/WEST TX PANHANDLE AND H3
JET MAX NEAR 110KTS WILL RESULT IN DEEP CYCLOGENESIS WITH A
DEEP SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP JUST EAST OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 500MB WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE TO TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. PWATS NEAR 1 INCH
WILL EXTEND TO NEAR HAYES, KANSAS BY DAYBREAK. LOWS TONIGHT
FROM MID TO UPPER 20S WEST OF HIGHWAY 61, TO THE LOWS 30S
FURTHER EAST.
MONDAY, THE UPPER CLOSED LOW WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED BY
18Z, AND FORECAST TO BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. RAIN
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST, CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES, AND SPREADING NORTHWARD IN
THE AFTERNOON. ECM EFI SUGGESTS HIGHLY ANOMALOUS MOISTURE WITH
THE SYSTEM WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE AS WELL (0.8+ AND SOT OF 1+) AS
FAR WEST AS HWY 83. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE NBM RANGING FROM
NEAR 0.20" AT LBF THROUGH ANW TO 0.80" AT BBW AND 1.15" AT ONL.
LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL EXPECTED MUCH TO THE WEST OF AN LBF
THROUGH ANW LINE. MOST MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER WEST THE
PAST DAY, IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. HIGHS FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S WHERE THE
RAIN IS FORECAST, WITH UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S BACK ACROSS THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST.
MONDAY NIGHT, THE CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN SD AND MN,
WITH RAIN ENDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. 850MB
TEMPERATURE REMAIN NEAR 5C DURING THE EVENING WHEN RAIN OCCURS.
BY THE TIME 850MB TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW 0C, THE PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE ENDED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WEST.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.
ON TUESDAY, A DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE INTO NORTH DAKOTA, WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH TO EXTEND SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN KANSAS. 700MB HEIGHTS WILL TIGHTEN UP TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND HAVE A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH DEEP MIXING EXPECTED.
THE ECMWF SUPPORTS ANOMALOUS WINDS AS EFI RANGES FROM 0.7-0.9
ACROSS THE CWA AND SOT OF 0-1. THE HIGHER VALUES NOTED ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. FORECAST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH TUESDAY, AND EVEN STRONGER
WEDNESDAY 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 55 MPH AT
TIMES NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE POTENTIAL FOR
BRIEF GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIND
HIGHLIGHT POSSIBLE.
SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES INTO MN. HIGHS TUESDAY AND WILL ALSO
BE COLDER IN THE LOW TO MID 40S MOST AREAS.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 DUE
TO DRY FUELS, AFTERNOON HUMIDITY 20 TO 25 PERCENT, AND STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH OR HIGHER
POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY THORUGH SUNDAY SHOULD SEE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FROM
THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S (COOLEST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST). A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WITH UPPER
RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS FAVORS THE COOLER AIRMASS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO AFFECT THE REGION, KEEPING THE WARMER
AIR TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD
WITH INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT KVTN WITH GUSTS
AROUND 30KT BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
TOWARD THE END OF THE VALID PERIOD RAIN WILL START PUSHING UP
FORM THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE A TIGHT WEST/EAST GRADIENT IN LOW
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EAST OF HWY 83
AND VFR CONDITIONS TO THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL BE
ASSESSING THESE CONDITIONS AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO TAF SITES
WITH LATER ISSUANCES.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...MBS
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