106
FXUS63 KLBF 191750
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1150 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND WEDNESDAY
ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. A THREAT
EXISTS FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MILES PER HOUR ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
- THE COMBINATION OF VERY DRY AIR AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
- DRY AND MORE MILD CONDITIONS PREVAIL LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND, BEFORE A POTENTIAL PATTERN SHIFT AND A RETURN OF
COLDER AIR NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
CURRENTLY, A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS QUICKLY MOVED THROUGH THE AREA,
IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT ACCUMULATING
RAIN TO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. BEHIND THIS FRONT, STRONG COLD ADVECTION
IS PROMOTING ENOUGH MECHANICAL MIXING TO TAP INTO HIGH MOMENTUM FLOW
ALOFT, AND WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35KTS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED THE AREA, AS THE STRONG
SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INTO FAR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY, EXPECT STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS TO PERSIST
AMID CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION, DIURNAL MIXING, AND A LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT. FLOW IN THE LOWEST FEW
KILOMETERS REMAINS ON THE ORDER OR 35-45KTS, AND THIS HIGHER
MOMENTUM FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE TRANSFERRED DOWNWARDS AND LEAD
TO WIND GUSTS OF 40-45MPH THIS AFTERNOON. ALOFT, THE UPPER LOW
RESPONSIBLE FOR YESTERDAY'S RAINFALL WILL QUICKLY OCCLUDE OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST, AND PHASE BACK INTO THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME, A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND BEGIN TO DEEPEN OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE INTERACTION OF THIS UPPER LOW AND A RAPIDLY DEEPENING
LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL LEAD TO A QUICKLY TIGHTENING PV
GRADIENT ALOFT ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, WITH AN UPPER JET
STRENGTHENING MARKEDLY OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS UPPER JET WILL SLOWLY
SWING OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH THE JET CORE ALOFT
TRANSLATING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO PAINT A TEXTBOOK TROPOPAUSE FOLD OVERHEAD WITHIN
VICINITY OF THE CORE OF THE UPPER JET, AND SHOULD LEAD TO A
RESTRENGTHENING OF WINDS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE PRIMARY PV
ANOMALY EJECTS ACROSS THE PLAINS. PRIOR TO THIS HOWEVER, SOME
DECREASE IN WINDS LOOKS LIKELY NEAR/AFTER MIDNIGHT CST, AS COLD
ADVECTION WANES AND LESSENS MECHANICAL MIXING.
THE PERIOD OF GREATEST HIGH WIND CONCERNS LOOKS TO BE AFTER SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS IS DUE TO A
BALANCING ACT OF HOW QUICKLY DEEPER MIXING CAN OCCUR PRIOR TO FLOW
ALOFT BEGINNING TO RELAX BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE BEST DYNAMICS
BEGIN TO EXIT THE AREA. THOUGH RATHER SHORT LIVED, GUIDANCE PAINTS A
FEW HOUR PERIOD LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON OF 55-60MPH WIND
GUSTS NEAR/EAST OF HWY 83 AND NEAR/NORTH OF HWY 20. WITH THIS IN
MIND, HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA, WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN GUSTS APPROACHING 60MPH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
CONCERNINGLY, VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO BE MIXED DOWNWARDS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW, LEADING TO DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA. EVEN WHEN COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES
ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE 40S, THIS WILL SEND HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE
LOW 20 PERCENT RANGE. THE COMBINATION OF LOW HUMIDITY AND VERY
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LEAD TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS,
AND ANY FIRE STARTS WILL LIKELY BE DIFFICULT TO CONTROL. WINDS
WEAKEN TOMORROW EVENING AS THE UPPER DYNAMICS BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES, AS WELL AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING. AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES TOMORROW NIGHT, LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
DRY AND MORE BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
FOR LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS IS AS UPPER RIDGING BEGINS
TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE ROCKIES, AND SLOWLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD INTO
THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATE AS A
CONSEQUENCE, WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S ACROSS
WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. A PATTERN SHIFT REMAINS POSSIBLE AS
WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS UPPER RIDGING ESTABLISHES IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA. THIS LEADS TO DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
WESTERN CANADA AND INTO THE PLAINS, AND LOOKS TO USHER A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CONUS. THE FIRST
FEATURE OF NOTE LOOKS TO ARRIVE MONDAY MORNING, AS A SURFACE LOW
EJECTS EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THIS DRAGS A STRONG
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA, USHERING A COLDER AIRMASS
INTO THE AREA. THE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THEN LOOK TO PERSIST
INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK, AS DEEP
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF CANADA AND THE CENTRAL
CONUS. ADDITIONAL COLD AIR INTRUSIONS LOOK LIKELY AS WE HEAD TOWARDS
THE THANKSGIVING TRAVEL PERIOD. ANY PRECIPITATION REMAINS LOW
CONFIDENCE, THOUGH COULD LEAD TO TRAVEL IMPACTS DURING A BUSY TRAVEL
PERIOD AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT THE MAIN
AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE ON WINDS.
STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH GUSTS
RANGING 35 TO 45 KNOTS, THE STRONGEST OF THESE IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. EXPECTATION IS
FOR THESE SPEEDS TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF NEBRASKA. LLWS WILL REMAIN A PROBLEM HOWEVER AND HAVE
INCLUDED MENTION AT BOTH TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY, EXPECT A QUICK INCREASE IN SPEEDS NEAR OR JUST AFTER
SUNRISE. THIS INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR 50 KNOT GUSTS AT
VTN BUT CLOSER TO 40 KNOTS AT LBF. THESE SPEEDS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BEFORE ANY
APPRECIABLE DECREASES OCCUR.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NEZ005>010-094.
SHORT TERM...BROWN
LONG TERM...BROWN
AVIATION...NMJ
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