465
FXUS63 KLBF 192050
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
250 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
* STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING AFTER SUNSET.
* DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO MILDER
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S BY SATURDAY.
* NEXT POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES ON MONDAY ALONG THE
NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER, ALTHOUGH, DEVELOPMENT AND PRECIP
TYPE FOR THIS SYSTEM IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THE LOW WILL BE SLOW
TO DEPART THE REGION AND REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN ACROSS NEBRASKA BRINGING VERY STRONG WINDS TO NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA ON WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING LASTING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 00Z,
WHICH AFTER THIS TIME WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH.
THE STALLED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR COLD AIR ADVECTION TO
PUSH INTO THE REGION AS WELL BRINGING SOME NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. CURRENT 850 MB TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE -2 TO -8 C RANGE RESULTING IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO
ONLY RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S TOMORROW (NEARLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL), HOWEVER, LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO OUR LOW 20 NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING
MUCH OF THE REGION IN DRY CONDITIONS. A RETURN TO WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL ALLOW FOR MILDER TEMPERATURES TO RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY WEST OF US-83 WHERE THE GENTLE INCREASE IN TERRAIN WILL
ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. A SURGE OF 850 MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE 6 TO 10 C RANGE BY SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS. THURSDAY REMAINS CHILLY (LOW
40S TO LOW 50S) AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST WITH
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST. BY SATURDAY, HIGHS RETURN
INTO THE 50S WITH SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE REACHING INTO
THE LOW 60S. WHILE SUNDAY REMAINS DRY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO FLATTEN IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO THE REGION (HIGHEST TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF
I-80).
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO NEBRASKA WILL BE ON
MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH. AT THIS TIME, THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG THE
NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. HOWEVER, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THIS SYSTEM ON TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW, HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP (~20 PERCENT) INTO THE FORECAST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEBRASKA. DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY,
CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIP TYPE IS ALSO LOW. WILL BE WATCHING THIS
DEVELOPING SYSTEM CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IF YOU HAVE EARLY
HOLIDAY TRAVEL PLANS, KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE LATEST FORECAST AND BE
PREPARED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO YOUR PLANS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT THE MAIN
AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE ON WINDS.
STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH GUSTS
RANGING 35 TO 45 KNOTS, THE STRONGEST OF THESE IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. EXPECTATION IS
FOR THESE SPEEDS TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF NEBRASKA. LLWS WILL REMAIN A PROBLEM HOWEVER AND HAVE
INCLUDED MENTION AT BOTH TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY, EXPECT A QUICK INCREASE IN SPEEDS NEAR OR JUST AFTER
SUNRISE. THIS INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR 50 KNOT GUSTS AT
VTN BUT CLOSER TO 40 KNOTS AT LBF. THESE SPEEDS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BEFORE ANY
APPRECIABLE DECREASES OCCUR.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM CST /7 AM MST/ TO 6 PM CST /5 PM
MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ005>010-094.
SHORT TERM...KULIK
LONG TERM...KULIK
AVIATION...NMJ
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