298
FXUS63 KLBF 200435
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1035 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
* STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING AFTER SUNSET.
* DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO MILDER
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S BY SATURDAY.
* NEXT POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES ON MONDAY ALONG THE
NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER, ALTHOUGH, DEVELOPMENT AND PRECIP
TYPE FOR THIS SYSTEM IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THE LOW WILL BE SLOW
TO DEPART THE REGION AND REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN ACROSS NEBRASKA BRINGING VERY STRONG WINDS TO NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA ON WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING LASTING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 00Z,
WHICH AFTER THIS TIME WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH.
THE STALLED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR COLD AIR ADVECTION TO
PUSH INTO THE REGION AS WELL BRINGING SOME NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. CURRENT 850 MB TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE -2 TO -8 C RANGE RESULTING IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO
ONLY RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S TOMORROW (NEARLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL), HOWEVER, LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO OUR LOW 20 NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING
MUCH OF THE REGION IN DRY CONDITIONS. A RETURN TO WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL ALLOW FOR MILDER TEMPERATURES TO RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY WEST OF US-83 WHERE THE GENTLE INCREASE IN TERRAIN WILL
ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. A SURGE OF 850 MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE 6 TO 10 C RANGE BY SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS. THURSDAY REMAINS CHILLY (LOW
40S TO LOW 50S) AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST WITH
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST. BY SATURDAY, HIGHS RETURN
INTO THE 50S WITH SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE REACHING INTO
THE LOW 60S. WHILE SUNDAY REMAINS DRY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO FLATTEN IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO THE REGION (HIGHEST TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF
I-80).
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO NEBRASKA WILL BE ON
MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH. AT THIS TIME, THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG THE
NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. HOWEVER, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THIS SYSTEM ON TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW, HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP (~20 PERCENT) INTO THE FORECAST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEBRASKA. DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY,
CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIP TYPE IS ALSO LOW. WILL BE WATCHING THIS
DEVELOPING SYSTEM CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IF YOU HAVE EARLY
HOLIDAY TRAVEL PLANS, KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE LATEST FORECAST AND BE
PREPARED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO YOUR PLANS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
WIND WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED. STRONGER WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL LEAD TO
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONCERNS OVERNIGHT AS WELL. OTHERWISE LOOK
FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM CST /7 AM MST/ TO 6 PM CST /5 PM
MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ005>010-094.
SHORT TERM...KULIK
LONG TERM...KULIK
AVIATION...TAYLOR
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