627
FXUS63 KLBF 210430
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1030 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDS WILL SUBSIDE QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND RH WILL RECOVER TO
AROUND 50 PERCENT BY LATE EVENING.
- SEASONAL TO ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.
- A COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY WITH AN
INCREASED THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWESTERN AREAS.
- AN EVEN COLDER AIRMASS COULD IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK AND BRING AN INCREASED THREAT
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 358 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAD A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND CANADA. THREE STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOWS WERE NOTED. THE FIRST OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND A SECOND OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDED SOUTH OF THIS LOW INTO THE OZARKS AND NORTHERN
ARKANSAS. A RIDGE EXTENDED NORTH FROM NORTHERN UTAH INTO
SOUTHERN ALBERTA. WEST OF THIS RIDGE, AN INTENSE CYCLONE WAS
PRESENT APPROXIMATELY 300 MILES OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN
WASHINGTON STATE. A TROUGH EXTENDED TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
THIS LOW INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. AT THE SURFACE THIS
AFTERNOON, LOW PRESSURE WAS SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
MANITOBA. A STRONG CRAIG HIGH WAS PRESENT OVER NORTHWESTERN
COLORADO (1033 MB). BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS, A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT HAS LED TO VERY STRONG WINDS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF 2 PM CST, WINDS WERE
GUSTING UP TO 54 MPH AT VALENTINE. TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA RANGED FROM 41 DEGREES AT GORDON, TO
50 DEGREES AT IMPERIAL, OGALLALA AND NORTH PLATTE. SKIES WERE
CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 358 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX AT SUNSET ACROSS THE AREA, BUT REMAIN
BREEZY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID EVENING HOURS. BUFKIT SOUNDING
FORECAST DATA, IS INDICATIVE OF LIMITED MIXING AFTER SUNDOWN
THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE SOME LIMITED LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION THROUGH LATE EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD KEEP
WINDS FROM TOTALLY DECOUPLING THROUGH LATE EVENING. HOWEVER,
WITH RH RECOVERY TO 30 PERCENT SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, THE THREAT
FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL END AT 6PM WHICH IS
THE ENDING TIME OF THE CURRENT RFW. WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
OVERNIGHT, PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST
AREA, AND THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AIR IN PLACE, TEMPS SHOULD
CRATER TONIGHT. WENT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS FROM
SW NEBRASKA INTO THE WESTERN SANDHILLS. WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED
IF WE SEE SOME READING NEARING 10 ABOVE IN THE WESTERN SANDHILLS
OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE DEGREE OF DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AIR. ON
THURSDAY, A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A SHIFT IN WIND
DIRECTION TO THE WEST, THEN SOUTH. BASED ON FORECAST H85 TEMPS
AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE, WE COULD SEE SOME LOWER 50S IN FAR SW
NEBRASKA AND THE SE PANHANDLE. ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST FORECAST
AREA, HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE UPPER 30S.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER THURSDAY NIGHT AND NEAR SEASONAL
WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 358 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS TO END THE WEEK INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
READINGS WILL REACH INTO THE 50S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ON
SUNDAY A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA,
USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK. READINGS
WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 30S FOR MOST AREAS MONDAY,
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
EXTENDED, THEY ARE CONFINED TO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA, THEN ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOOKING AT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF
BOTH DEVELOP SIGNIFICANT BANDS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TOWARD THE
MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS FAVORS KANSAS, WHILE THE
ECMWF FAVORS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. LOOKING AT THE EC ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS, THERE CONTINUES TO BE A DECENT SIGNAL FOR 3+ INCHES OF
SNOW WITH SOME MEMBERS ECLIPSING THE 6+ INCH MARK OVER NORTHERN
NEBRASKA. HOWEVER THE SOT AND EFI PRODUCTS ARE NOT INDICATING
ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACROSS THE FA MIDWEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR SNOW TRENDS FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND HAVE
ALREADY REACHED OUT TO OUR DOT PARTNERS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SNOW EVENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME. NO DOUBT, IF THIS SNOWY
SCENARIO PLAYS OUT NEXT WEEK, IT COULD SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT
TRAVEL PLANS DURING THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA, WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE GUSTS
HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED NORTH AND EAST OF KVTN, SO HAVE REMOVED
MENTION OF GUSTS FROM THE 06Z TAFS, THOUGH SPORADIC GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON, CREATING VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTIONS NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT DURING THE SYSTEM'S PASSAGE. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR, WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGHOUT
THE EFFECTIVE TAF PERIOD.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...BUTTLER
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...RICHIE
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