213
FXUS63 KLBF 221116
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
516 AM CST FRI NOV 22 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- MILDER TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S TODAY AND UPPER 40S
TO UPPER 50S SATURDAY.
- COOLER SUNDAY IN THE LOWER 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING IN WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 30 MPH.
- A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST SANDHILLS.
- QUIETER WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE A MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN ARRIVES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. TURNING COLDER
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST FRI NOV 22 2024
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATED MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND ALSO OFF THE COAST OF OREGON. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
WERE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S AND LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST FRI NOV 22 2024
TODAY, A WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE EAST TODAY ACROSS WESTERN AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THIS WILL BRING HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S NEAR AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 WHERE A LIGHT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL OCCUR. COOLER IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S IN
THE EAST.
TONIGHT, A STRONG SURFACE INVERSION WILL DEVELOP WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S.
SATURDAY, A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN WITH UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. CONFIDENCE IN HIGHS ARE BELOW AVERAGE,
AS THE NAM KEEP THE FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA IN SOUTH DAKOTA. AND
THE NBM 25TH/75TH PERCENTILES SHOW AN 8 DEGREE SPREAD IN HIGHS.
SATURDAY NIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA, WITH WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
LOWS NOT AS COLD IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
SUNDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH, WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS DEVELOPING LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STRONGEST
WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES. THIS ALL OCCURS IN ADVANCE OF AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND CENTRAL WYOMING
BY LATE IN THE DAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST FRI NOV 22 2024
SUNDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
DAKOTA AND NORTHERN COLORADO. A 300MB JET MAX TO NEAR 100KTS
DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN
NEBRASKA. THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES EACH GENERATE SOME VERY
LIGHT QPFS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS COULD PRODUCE A LIGHT DUSTING
OF SNOW IN SOME LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MONDAY WILL BE COLDER FROM THE MID 30S TO
LOW 40S, MODERATING TO THE 40S TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY, AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM MONTANA INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SNOW
WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THIS TROUGH, ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF
WYOMING AND COLORADO.
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE SHOWS LIGHT QPFS FROM EASTERN COLORADO ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS. THIS WILL BE A FAST MOVING SYSTEM,
SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES
IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT, THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS POPS FAIRLY
LOW AT 30 PERCENT, AND MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. IF
YOU HAVE HOLIDAY TRAVEL PLANS, CONTINUE TO CHECK ON THE LATEST
FORECAST AND BE PREPARED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO YOUR PLANS IF
NEEDED.
THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING DAY), COLD AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES WITH COLDER HIGHS IN THE 30S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 513 AM CST FRI NOV 22 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THERE WILL BE A SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDS OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
THROUGH TONIGHT, LESS THAN 10 KTS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...TAYLOR
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