203
FXUS63 KLBF 230934
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
334 AM CST SAT NOV 23 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY.
- COOLER SUNDAY IN THE LOWER 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 30 MPH. A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST
SANDHILLS.
- A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
SANDHILLS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
- QUIETER WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE A MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN ARRIVES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT AT THIS TIME. TURNING COLDER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST SAT NOV 23 2024
TODAY, A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN WITH A LIGHT EAST
TO NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING, VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE COOLEST NEAR 45 ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST, WHILE MUCH MILDER IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. SKIES PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.
TONIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA, WITH WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. LOWS
NOT AS COLD FROM 25 TO AROUND 30.
SUNDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH, WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS DEVELOPING LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STRONGEST
WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AS COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES. USED A BLEND OF THE
NBM 90TH PERCENTILE FOR WINDS AND WIND GUSTS. THIS ALL OCCURS IN
ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND
CENTRAL WYOMING BY LATE IN THE DAY. ALSO, THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST SANDHILLS.
SUNDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
DAKOTA AND NORTHERN COLORADO. A 300MB JET MAX TO NEAR 100KTS
DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN
NEBRASKA. THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES EACH GENERATE SOME VERY
LIGHT QPFS DEVELOPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
THIS COULD PRODUCE UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE PINE
RIDGE, WITH A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW POSSIBLE FURTHER SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE SANDHILLS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST SAT NOV 23 2024
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MONDAY WILL BE COLDER FROM THE LOW 30S TO
LOW 40S, MODERATING TO THE 40S TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY, AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM MONTANA INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SNOW
WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THIS TROUGH, ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF
WYOMING AND COLORADO.
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLES EACH SHOWS LIGHT QPFS FROM EASTERN COLORADO ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS. IN ADDITION A LARGE
SPREADREMAIN AMONG ALL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THIS WILL BE A FAST
MOVING SYSTEM, SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT. GIVEN
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT, THE CURRENT FORECAST
HAS POPS FAIRLY LOW AT 20 TO 30 PERCENT, AND MAINLY FOR
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. IF YOU HAVE HOLIDAY TRAVEL PLANS,
CONTINUE TO CHECK ON THE LATEST FORECAST AND BE PREPARED TO MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS TO YOUR PLANS IF NEEDED.
THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING DAY), COLD AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES WITH COLDER HIGHS FROM THE UPPER
20S TO UPPER 30S. FRIDAY, STILL COLD AND MAINLY DRY WITH HIGHS
AGAIN FROM THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.
A SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR OUTBREAK IS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE REGION
DAYS 8 THROUGH 10. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS AN
UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE FRIDAY OVER ALASKA AND THE GULF OF ALASKA.
ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN CANADA SOUTH INTO MONTANA
AND NORTH DAKOTA WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION NEXT
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
NEAR 1045MB BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. GFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN HIGH TEMPERATURES SUGGEST HIGHS FROM THE LOW 20S
TO LOW 30S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS NEXT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY (DAYS 8 AND 9).
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST FRI NOV 22 2024
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW WITH WIND
SPEEDS UNDER 10 KTS. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH
CLOUDS, BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...GOMEZ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page