365
FXUS63 KLBF 170522
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1122 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL FOR A DUSTING OF SNOW FROM THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE THROUGH THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS LATE TONIGHT THORUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, NO MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS ON THURSDAY,
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HWY 2.
- TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA, AT OR BELOW NORMAL FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 215 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL ARE THE RULE UNDER
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
WITH THE LOW AMPLITUDE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN US
SATELLITE IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWS CLOUDS STARTING TO ENCROACH ON OUR
WESTERN HORIZON AS A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WHILE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
WILL SLIDE BY TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE DAKOTAS, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO COMBINE WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MIDLEVEL FGEN
FORCING TO GENERATE A PERIOD OF SOME LIGHT SNOW FROM THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE NEAR THE PINE RIDGE LATE TONIGHT/BEFORE DAYBREAK THAT
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ALONG THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR LATER TUESDAY
MORNING BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. GIVEN THE OVERALL LACK OF
MOISTURE AND QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
INDICATES NO GREATER THAN A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR A SPOTTY
TRACE/DUSTING OF SNOW. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
20S.
AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FORM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS WINDS INCREASE AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN.
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS BETTER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 35MPH ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, TRANSITIONING
TO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY TUESDAY EVENING. WITH COLDER AIR
DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH TOMORROW, HIGHS TUESDAY WILL HAVE A
LARGE RANGE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH MIDDLE/UPPER 30S NEAR THE
SD BORDER BUT INTO THE MIDDLE 50S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THE
COMBINATION OF PROLONGED DRY CONDITIONS, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CREATE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL IN THE TEENS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 215 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
OUR QUASI ZONAL PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOWS MOVING THROUGH THE
HIGH PLAINS. WHILE THIS WILL BRING US GLANCING BLOWS OF COLD AIR MID TO
LATE WEEK ESPECIALLY EAST OF HWY 183, ANY ASSOCIATED MEANINGFUL
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SHUNTED OFF TO OUR NORTH THORUGH THE DAKOTAS.
ENSEMBLE QPF PLUMES SOUTH OF HWY 2 REMAIN CLUSTERED NEAR ZERO
WITH GOOD CLUSTERING AROUND ONLY A HUNDRETH OR TWO FURTHER TO
THE THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
A VIGOROUS SYSTEM WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY AND SWING A
COLD FRONT INTO NEBRASKA WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS USHERING IN ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLD AIR. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS ALOFT THURSDAY INTO THE
99TH PERCENTILE AND THERE IS A MEDIUM/HIGH CONFIDENCE SIGNAL FOR STRONG
WINDS IN EFI/SOT GUIDANCE. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS A
BETTER THAN EVEN CHANCE FOR GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 45MPH NORTH OF HWY
2 THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A LARGE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE THEN BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN US BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND
IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BUT AT OR BELOW NORMAL FURTHER
TO THE NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND
PERIODIC BOUTS OF WIND, EXPECT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
ELEVATED OR NEAR CRITICAL AT TIMES ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA DESPITE HUMIDITY REMAINS ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH LATE THIS
MORNING ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. LIGHT SNOW
REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN NEBRASKA TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS, THOUGH IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED.
BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, LOW STRATUS WILL MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA, WITH MVFR AND IFR CIGS
EXPECTED. THIS STRATUS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY EXIT THE AREA
TONIGHT, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE NEAR THE END OF THE
VALID PERIOD.
WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH LATE MORNING, AT AROUND 5 TO 10
KTS. WINDS THEN SHIFT NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND STRENGTHEN,
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KTS EXPECTED.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...BROWN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page