472  
FXUS63 KLBF 170904  
AFDLBF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE  
304 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2024  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- QUICK MOVING SYSTEM TO BRING A DUSTING SNOW TO NORTHERN  
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.  
 
- CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG  
WINDS (30 TO 40+ MPH) THURSDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.  
 
- HIGH CONFIDENCE (>80%) IN TEMPERATURES REMAINING GENERALLY IN  
THE ABOVE NORMAL RANGE THIS WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED  
BEYOND TODAY.  
 
 
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2024  
 
RECENT GOES-16 WV IMAGERY AND RAP 500-MB ANALYSIS SHOWED A TROUGH OF  
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO, EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE  
OHIO RIVER BASIN. AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS EJECTING EASTWARD OUT  
OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WAS  
ATTEMPTING TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH A SHORTWAVE NOTED  
OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. AT THE SURFACE, AN ASSOCIATED LOW  
WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT  
EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWEST INTO IOWA AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA. AT 3 AM  
CT, TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 25 DEGREES AT VALENTINE AND  
O'NEILL TO 37 DEGREES AT OGALLALA.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2024  
 
EARLY MORNING RADAR HAS BEGUN TO SHOW FLURRIES/LIGHT ACROSS THE  
PINE RIDGE INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THIS IS DUE TO BROAD UPPER- LEVEL  
ASCENT COMBINED WITH INCREASED MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND  
MEAGER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. ALTHOUGH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR  
ACCUMULATING SNOW RESIDES ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA, LIGHT  
SNOW/FLURRIES WILL SKID ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE  
DAY, PRODUCING A LIGHT DUSTING AT BEST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY  
WILL GRADUALLY SWEEP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY  
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES  
SETTING UP BEHIND IT. WITH 4 TO 5MB/3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES AND  
COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA) INCREASING OVER THE LOCAL AREA, GUSTS  
OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON TODAY. THESE WINDS WILL BE ABLE  
TO SUBSIDE INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS WITH THE APPROACH OF A  
SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL  
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 30S IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA WITH  
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SITTING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL  
VALUES IN THE MID-50S. WE'LL CERTAINLY FEEL THE COLD HIGH  
PRESSURE NUDGING IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES  
FALL INTO THE TEENS. AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL  
RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WESTERN US BRINGING QUIET AND DRY  
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES IN THE  
MID-30S WILL BE FELT OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES ON  
WEDNESDAY, TRENDING MORE MILD TO THE WEST, IN THE 40S TO  
LOW-50S.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2024  
 
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE  
DEFINED BY UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN US WITH A ROBUST  
SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF ALBERTA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  
THIS SYSTEM WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN AND NORTH  
CENTRAL NEBRASKA ON THURSDAY WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE FILLING IN  
BEHIND IT. VIGOROUS PRESSURE RISES AND CAA BEHIND THE FRONT  
WILL BRING A ROUND OF STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE LOCAL AREA,  
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS INTO NORTH CENTRAL  
NEBRASKA. WHEN LOOKING AT RECENT NBM PROBABILITIES, A 60 TO 90%+  
CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS OF 30 MPH OR GREATER EXISTS ACROSS MUCH OF  
THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER, WHEN LOOKING AT PROBABILITY OF WIND GUSTS  
EXCEEDING 40 MPH, PROBABILITIES NEARING 70% REMAIN OVER PORTIONS  
OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NEAR THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER.  
AT THIS TIME, WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 30 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED WITH  
THE STRONGEST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH OVER NORTH AND NORTH CENTRAL  
NEBRASKA. SUCH STRONG WINDS ARE HIGHLIGHTED BY THE EXTREME FORECAST  
INDEX (EFI), SUCH THAT THE SOT (SHIFT OF TAILS) IS GREATER THAN  
0. AS HEIGHT FALLS FILL IN OVERNIGHT ON THURSDAY AND THE FLOW  
BEGINS TO RELAX, THE WINDS TO SUBSIDE DOWN TO 20 MPH OR LESS  
HEADING INTO FRIDAY. A LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER- LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS  
IN OVER THE WESTERN US THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH  
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING MILD,  
GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND 50S. IT CERTAINLY WON'T FEEL LIKE  
CHRISTMASTIME HEADING INTO CHRISTMAS WEEK AS ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED OVER NOT ONLY THE REGION BUT THE  
ENTIRE CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE YEAR, POTENTIALLY CONTINUING  
INTO THE NEW YEAR. UNFORTUNATELY FOR THOSE WHO WISH FOR A WHITE  
CHRISTMAS... ALL SIGNS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A BROWN CHRISTMAS  
THIS YEAR WITH 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH LATE THIS  
MORNING ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. LIGHT SNOW  
REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN NEBRASKA TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT  
SEVERAL HOURS, THOUGH IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED.  
 
BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, LOW STRATUS WILL MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF  
NORTHERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA, WITH MVFR AND IFR CIGS  
EXPECTED. THIS STRATUS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY EXIT THE AREA  
TONIGHT, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE NEAR THE END OF THE  
VALID PERIOD.  
 
WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH LATE MORNING, AT AROUND 5 TO 10  
KTS. WINDS THEN SHIFT NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND STRENGTHEN,  
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KTS EXPECTED.  
 
 
   
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...  
SHORT TERM...VIKEN  
LONG TERM...VIKEN  
AVIATION...BROWN  
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