365
FXUS63 KLBF 171130
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
530 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- QUICK MOVING SYSTEM TO BRING A DUSTING SNOW TO NORTHERN
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
- CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS (30 TO 40+ MPH) THURSDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE (>80%) IN TEMPERATURES REMAINING GENERALLY IN
THE ABOVE NORMAL RANGE THIS WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
BEYOND TODAY.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
RECENT GOES-16 WV IMAGERY AND RAP 500-MB ANALYSIS SHOWED A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO, EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE
OHIO RIVER BASIN. AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS EJECTING EASTWARD OUT
OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WAS
ATTEMPTING TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH A SHORTWAVE NOTED
OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. AT THE SURFACE, AN ASSOCIATED LOW
WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWEST INTO IOWA AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA. AT 3 AM
CT, TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 25 DEGREES AT VALENTINE AND
O'NEILL TO 37 DEGREES AT OGALLALA.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
EARLY MORNING RADAR HAS BEGUN TO SHOW FLURRIES/LIGHT ACROSS THE
PINE RIDGE INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THIS IS DUE TO BROAD UPPER- LEVEL
ASCENT COMBINED WITH INCREASED MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND
MEAGER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. ALTHOUGH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW RESIDES ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA, LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES WILL SKID ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE
DAY, PRODUCING A LIGHT DUSTING AT BEST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL GRADUALLY SWEEP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES
SETTING UP BEHIND IT. WITH 4 TO 5MB/3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA) INCREASING OVER THE LOCAL AREA, GUSTS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON TODAY. THESE WINDS WILL BE ABLE
TO SUBSIDE INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS WITH THE APPROACH OF A
SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 30S IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA WITH
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SITTING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
VALUES IN THE MID-50S. WE'LL CERTAINLY FEEL THE COLD HIGH
PRESSURE NUDGING IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE TEENS. AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WESTERN US BRINGING QUIET AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID-30S WILL BE FELT OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES ON
WEDNESDAY, TRENDING MORE MILD TO THE WEST, IN THE 40S TO
LOW-50S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE
DEFINED BY UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN US WITH A ROBUST
SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF ALBERTA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA ON THURSDAY WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE FILLING IN
BEHIND IT. VIGOROUS PRESSURE RISES AND CAA BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BRING A ROUND OF STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE LOCAL AREA,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS INTO NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. WHEN LOOKING AT RECENT NBM PROBABILITIES, A 60 TO 90%+
CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS OF 30 MPH OR GREATER EXISTS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER, WHEN LOOKING AT PROBABILITY OF WIND GUSTS
EXCEEDING 40 MPH, PROBABILITIES NEARING 70% REMAIN OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NEAR THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER.
AT THIS TIME, WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 30 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH OVER NORTH AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. SUCH STRONG WINDS ARE HIGHLIGHTED BY THE EXTREME FORECAST
INDEX (EFI), SUCH THAT THE SOT (SHIFT OF TAILS) IS GREATER THAN
0. AS HEIGHT FALLS FILL IN OVERNIGHT ON THURSDAY AND THE FLOW
BEGINS TO RELAX, THE WINDS TO SUBSIDE DOWN TO 20 MPH OR LESS
HEADING INTO FRIDAY. A LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER- LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
IN OVER THE WESTERN US THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING MILD,
GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND 50S. IT CERTAINLY WON'T FEEL LIKE
CHRISTMASTIME HEADING INTO CHRISTMAS WEEK AS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED OVER NOT ONLY THE REGION BUT THE
ENTIRE CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE YEAR, POTENTIALLY CONTINUING
INTO THE NEW YEAR. UNFORTUNATELY FOR THOSE WHO WISH FOR A WHITE
CHRISTMAS... ALL SIGNS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A BROWN CHRISTMAS
THIS YEAR WITH 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNTIL 21Z AT THE KVTN
TERMINAL. LIGHT SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN NEBRASKA
TERMINALS THROUGH 21Z, THOUGH IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIMITED. BY 21Z THIS AFTERNOON, STRATUS WILL MOVE INTO PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA, WITH MVFR CIGS AS LOW AS OVC015 EXPECTED.
THIS STRATUS SHOULD EXIT THE KVTN TERMINAL BY 02Z, WITH VFR
CEILINGS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST AT THE TERMINALS THIS
MORNING AT AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS. WINDS THEN SHIFT NORTHWEST AT
KLBF BY 19Z, WITH GUSTS OF 25 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. WINDS AT KVTN WILL BECOME NORTHERLY BY 18Z WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THEN LIGHT BY 02Z.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...VIKEN
SHORT TERM...VIKEN
LONG TERM...VIKEN
AVIATION...ROBERG
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