194
FXUS63 KLBF 172055
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
255 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTER TODAY, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
- A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD STRONG WINDS TO THE AREA THURSDAY.
- HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TOWARD WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
H5 ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAD A LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM FAR EASTERN MONTANA
INTO SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING. UPSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE, LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGING EXTENDED ALONG THE PACIFIC NW COAST OF THE
CONUS. EAST OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH, ZONAL FLOW EXTENDED EAST
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WHERE A TROUGH WAS PRESENT FROM
EASTERN ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LP OF MICHIGAN.
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA, A COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS THE HEART OF THE
SANDHILLS. TEMPERATURES WERE SUB FREEZING OVER FAR NORTHERN
NEBRASKA WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30. SOUTH OF
THE FRONT, READINGS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 40S WITH THE WARMEST
READINGS OVER FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
THE MID WAVE SHORTWAVE, WHICH BROUGHT SNOW TO SOUTH DAKOTA
TODAY, WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO MINNESOTA AND IOWA TONIGHT. A
SECONDARY DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE SOUTH FROM THE CHEYENNE RIDGE TO
THE PALMER DIVIDE THIS EVENING, KEEPING THE THREAT FOR LIGHT
SNOW, WELL OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING, THEN
CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT OVER TO LIGHT WEST
TOWARD 12Z WEDNESDAY. WITH DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS, CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND THE LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS, WENT A TAD
COOLER ON LOWS IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY AS THIS APPEARS TO BE
A COLD DRAINAGE SETUP. ON WEDNESDAY, A SECOND, MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CANADA, LEADING TO
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND SOUTHWESTERN
SASKATCHEWAN. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AT H850, HOWEVER, NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL RETAIN A SOUTHERLY AND
SOUTH- SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
LIMIT MIXING AND BELIEVE THIS, ALONG WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY LIMIT
HIGHS MAINLY TO THE 40S. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE
FAR NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA WHERE THE LIGHTEST WINDS RESIDE.
THAT BEING SAID, HIGHS WEDNESDAY WERE TRENDED DOWN FROM THE
INHERITED FORECAST AND BROUGHT MORE IN LINE WITH THE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM
NW NORTH DAKOTA INTO SE NORTH DAKOTA. WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT, LEADING TO MILD READINGS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL START OUT WITH LIGHTER
WINDS AND WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF LOW TEMPERATURES WERE HIT IN
THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS WITH STEADY TO RISING TEMPS
OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM SE NORTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL FORCE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT INTO
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA BY AFTERNOON, WITH THE
FRONT STALLING OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA INTO THE PANHANDLE BY
THURSDAY EVENING. THE FRONT ENTERS FAR NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA
LATE MORNING AND WITH GOOD MIXING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, HIGHS MAY
ACTUALLY REACH THE LOWER 40S IN THE O'NEILL AREA THURSDAY
MORNING, BEFORE CRATERING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE FRONTAL
TIMING IN SW NEBRASKA HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON, HIGHS
SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 50S. WITH RESPECT TO WINDS THURSDAY.
THE LATEST NAM12 AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE GUST
POTENTIAL TO AROUND 50 MPH ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM VALENTINE TO
BROKEN BOW AND LOCATIONS NORTHEAST. THIS IS WHERE THE STRONGEST
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES EXIST THURSDAY. THE NBM
INITIALIZED WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 45 MPH RANGE. THESE
GUSTS WERE INCREASED RESULTING IN GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH WHICH
BETTER RESEMBLED WHAT WAS SEEN IN THE NAM12 AND GFS BUFKIT
SOUNDING FORECASTS. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN THE COLDEST LOWS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. READINGS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN
THE NORTHEAST TO THE MIDDLE TEENS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. WINDS
WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY WITH ARCTIC AIR SLOW TO
EXIT TO THE EAST. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE
NORTHEAST TO NEAR 50 IN FAR SW NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY CLIMB SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE NORTHEASTERN FORECAST
AREA WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 30S. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA, HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
WIDESPREAD 50S WILL ARRIVE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A POSSIBLE RIDGE
BREAKDOWN MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK MAY PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 60S
OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA. THE
BOUNDARY IS ALREADY THROUGH KVTN WHERE WINDS ARE NORTHEAST AND
WILL GRADUALLY BACK AROUND THROUGH NORTH TO NORTHWEST BY THIS
EVENING, THOUGH EXPECT WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW
15KTS BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE BOUNDARY WILL
REACH KLBF ABOUT 1 TO 2 HOURS AFTER ISSUANCE WITH A BETTER
SURGE OF WINDS WITH NORTHWEST GUSTS AROUND 25KTS THORUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL MONITOR THE BOUNDARY AND ADJUST TIMING AS
NEEDED. WINDS AT KLBF DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND WILL REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGH THE LATTER PORTION OF THE VALID PERIOD.
CIGS ARE CURRENTLY VFR AT KVTN BUT MVFR CIGS UPSTREAM WILL MOVE
OVER THE AIRFIELD THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER OVER THE AIRFIELD
THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE SCATTERING OUT AROUND DAYBREAK. KLBF IS
CURRENTLY VFR AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THORUGH THE PERIOD
AS ANY LOWER CIGS REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...BUTTLER
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...MBS
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