271
FXUS63 KLBF 182334
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
534 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD DOWN FROM THE NORTH
TOMORROW ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA MID MORNING
ONWARD. POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS OF 50 TO 60MPH FROM HIGHWAY 2
NORTHWARD, TO 35 TO 45MPH FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST.
- ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THURSDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO PERSISTENT
DRYNESS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
- AFTER A BRIEF COOLDOWN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK, HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 130 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALREADY EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY STREAMING OVER
THE REGION AS A VIGOROUS LOW IS POISED TO MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. ANTICIPATE
THE AMPLIFYING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE LOW MAY YIELD A WIDE SPREAD IN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AS VALLEYS
DECOUPLE WITH POOR DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER AND RADIATE A BIT
BETTER THAN HILLS THAT MAINTAIN SOME WIND AND MAY EXPERIENCE RISING
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. WILL STAY CLOSE TO BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S AND ADJUST IF NEEDED AS
ANY TRENDS BECOME EVIDENT THIS EVENING. MOISTURE IS QUITE
LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND EXPECT ANY POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH IN THE DAKOTAS AND
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE HAS ANY CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION UP ALONG THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR AT OR BELOW 10
PERCENT.
AS THE LOW DIVES INTO THE MIDWEST TOMORROW, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER NEBRASKA FORM THE NORTH BY MID MORNING AND SING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE DAY DRIVEN BY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING OUT OF CANADA. ANTICIPATE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT WITH A
1040MB HIGH PRESSURE RAPIDLY MOVING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW, A
STRONG ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT COUPLED WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL SUPPORT STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH EFFICIENT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM
TRANSFER BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
TRENDS FOR THE STRONG WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND BUFKIT IS NOW SHOWING
OVER 60KT AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AT KVTN AND KANW AND
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A BETTER THAN EVEN CHANCE FOR
WIND GUSTS AT OR ABLE 55MPH UP ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER. GIVEN
THIS SETUP, ANTICIPATE WIND GUSTS IN THE 50 TO 60MPH RANGE
MAINLY EAST OF HWY 83 AND NORTH OF HWY 2/HWY 91, DIMINISHING TO
35 TO 45MPH FURTHER SOUTHWEST NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. HAVE
ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING FROM CHERRY COUNTY EASTWARD AND WILL
MONITOR LATER TRENDS IN GUIDANCE CLOSELY TO SEE IF ANY SPATIAL
OR TEMPORAL CHANGES BECOME NECESSARY. TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER 40S UP TOWARD THE
HWY 20 CORRIDOR BUT MIDDLE 50S WILL BE MORE COMMON SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. THE COMBINATION OF PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS,
STRONG WINDS, AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF HWY 2, DESPITE MINIMUM HUMIDITY REMAINING WELL ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS. LOWS IN THE COLD AIR THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH OF HWY 2 TO THE MIDDLE TENS
FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 130 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE SO FAR THIS SEASON, COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
DOWN INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BEHIND OUT DEPARTING LOW THEN SLIDES INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST, PROVIDING ANOTHER BRIEF GLANCING SHOT OF COLD AIR
ON FRIDAY WITH A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS
FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST TO MID/UPPER 20S
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE HWY 281 CORRIDOR.
BY THE WEEKEND, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
BUILDING A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT RISE TO
AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA MAY BE PUSHING HIGHS NEAR 60 ON SUNDAY. ENERGY MOVING
INTO THE PACNW WILL UNDERCUT A PORTION OF THE RIDGE AND MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, PUSHING A WEAK SURFACE LOW WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE LIMITED AND ENSEMBLE QPF IS
GENERALLY DRY WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH PROBABILITIES FOR ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 10 PERCENT, SO WE
LOOK TO REMAIN DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER OUT NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR
PRECIPITATION MAY ARRIVE BY CHRISTMAS NIGHT SO WILL BE WATCHING
TRENDS IN THE DAYS AHEAD.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 532 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE OF CONCERN TONIGHT AS STRONG WEST
WINDS WILL RESIDE JUST OFF THE SURFACE. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
THREAT WILL DECREASE MONDAY MORNING AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE
AND BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL AREA WIDE WITH SCT TO BKN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ TO 4 PM CST /3 PM
MST/ THURSDAY FOR NEZ005>010-094.
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...TAYLOR
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